China Gas Holdings Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 77.08
| CGHLY Stock | USD 23.77 0.20 0.83% |
China |
China Gas Target Price Odds to finish over 77.08
The tendency of China Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 77.08 or more in 90 days |
| 23.77 | 90 days | 77.08 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Gas to move over $ 77.08 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This China Gas Holdings probability density function shows the probability of China Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Gas Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 23.77 and $ 77.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon China Gas has a beta of 0.68 suggesting as returns on the market go up, China Gas average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Gas Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Gas Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. China Gas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Gas Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
China Gas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Gas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Gas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Gas Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Gas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.0023 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
China Gas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Gas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Gas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.4 B |
China Gas Technical Analysis
China Gas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Gas Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Gas Predictive Forecast Models
China Gas' time-series forecasting models is one of many China Gas' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Gas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards China Gas in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, China Gas' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from China Gas options trading.
Check out China Gas Backtesting, China Gas Valuation, China Gas Correlation, China Gas Hype Analysis, China Gas Volatility, China Gas History as well as China Gas Performance. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for China Pink Sheet analysis
When running China Gas' price analysis, check to measure China Gas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Gas is operating at the current time. Most of China Gas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Gas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Gas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Gas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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