Federal National Mortgage Stock Probability of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 4.21
| FNMAJ Stock | USD 4.21 0.11 2.55% |
Federal |
Federal National Target Price Odds to finish over 4.21
The tendency of Federal OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 4.21 | 90 days | 4.21 | about 1.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federal National to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.79 (This Federal National Mortgage probability density function shows the probability of Federal OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federal National has a beta of 0.14. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Federal National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Federal National Mortgage will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Federal National Mortgage has an alpha of 0.5306, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Federal National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federal National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federal National Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federal National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federal National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federal National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federal National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federal National Mortgage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federal National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.53 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Federal National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Federal OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Federal National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 218.4 B |
Federal National Technical Analysis
Federal National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federal OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federal National Mortgage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federal OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federal National Predictive Forecast Models
Federal National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federal National's otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federal National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Federal National in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Federal National's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Federal National options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Federal OTC Stock
Federal National financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federal OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federal with respect to the benefits of owning Federal National security.