Halfords Group Plc Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 3.90
| HLFDY Stock | USD 3.90 0.20 4.88% |
Halfords |
Halfords Group Target Price Odds to finish over 3.90
The tendency of Halfords Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 3.90 | 90 days | 3.90 | roughly 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Halfords Group to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Halfords Group PLC probability density function shows the probability of Halfords Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Halfords Group PLC has a beta of -0.59. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Halfords Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Halfords Group PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Halfords Group PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Halfords Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Halfords Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Halfords Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Halfords Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Halfords Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Halfords Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Halfords Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Halfords Group PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Halfords Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Halfords Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Halfords Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Halfords Group PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Halfords Group PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Halfords Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Halfords Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Halfords Group PLC sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Halfords to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Halfords Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Halfords Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Halfords Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Halfords Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Halfords Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 218.9 M |
Halfords Group Technical Analysis
Halfords Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Halfords Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Halfords Group PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Halfords Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Halfords Group Predictive Forecast Models
Halfords Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Halfords Group's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Halfords Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Halfords Group PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Halfords Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Halfords Group PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Halfords Group PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Halfords Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Halfords Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Halfords Group PLC sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Halfords to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Halfords Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Check out Halfords Group Backtesting, Halfords Group Valuation, Halfords Group Correlation, Halfords Group Hype Analysis, Halfords Group Volatility, Halfords Group History as well as Halfords Group Performance. Note that the Halfords Group PLC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Halfords Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for Halfords Pink Sheet analysis
When running Halfords Group's price analysis, check to measure Halfords Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Halfords Group is operating at the current time. Most of Halfords Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Halfords Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Halfords Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Halfords Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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