Atyr Pharma Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.59
| LIFE Stock | USD 1.60 0.03 1.91% |
Closest to current price ATyr long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
ATyr |
ATyr Pharma Target Price Odds to finish below 1.59
The tendency of ATyr Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.59 or more in 90 days |
| 1.60 | 90 days | 1.59 | about 11.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ATyr Pharma to drop to $ 1.59 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.68 (This aTyr Pharma probability density function shows the probability of ATyr Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of aTyr Pharma price to stay between $ 1.59 and its current price of $1.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.28 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days ATyr Pharma has a beta of 0.88. This indicates aTyr Pharma market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, ATyr Pharma is expected to follow. Additionally ATyr Pharma has an alpha of 0.051, implying that it can generate a 0.051 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ATyr Pharma Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ATyr Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as aTyr Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ATyr Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ATyr Pharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ATyr Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ATyr Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold aTyr Pharma, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ATyr Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
ATyr Pharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ATyr Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for aTyr Pharma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| aTyr Pharma may become a speculative penny stock | |
| aTyr Pharma had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| aTyr Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 353 K. Net Loss for the year was (50.39 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (32.42 M). | |
| aTyr Pharma currently holds about 88.55 M in cash with (33.22 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.09, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| aTyr Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: With 37 percent stake, aTyr Pharma, Inc. seems to have captured institutional investors interest - Yahoo News Canada |
ATyr Pharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ATyr Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ATyr Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ATyr Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.2 M |
ATyr Pharma Technical Analysis
ATyr Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ATyr Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of aTyr Pharma. In general, you should focus on analyzing ATyr Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ATyr Pharma Predictive Forecast Models
ATyr Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many ATyr Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ATyr Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about aTyr Pharma
Checking the ongoing alerts about ATyr Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for aTyr Pharma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| aTyr Pharma may become a speculative penny stock | |
| aTyr Pharma had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| aTyr Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 353 K. Net Loss for the year was (50.39 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (32.42 M). | |
| aTyr Pharma currently holds about 88.55 M in cash with (33.22 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.09, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| aTyr Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: With 37 percent stake, aTyr Pharma, Inc. seems to have captured institutional investors interest - Yahoo News Canada |
Check out ATyr Pharma Backtesting, ATyr Pharma Valuation, ATyr Pharma Correlation, ATyr Pharma Hype Analysis, ATyr Pharma Volatility, ATyr Pharma History as well as ATyr Pharma Performance. For information on how to trade ATyr Stock refer to our How to Trade ATyr Stock guide.Note that the aTyr Pharma information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ATyr Pharma's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for ATyr Stock analysis
When running ATyr Pharma's price analysis, check to measure ATyr Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ATyr Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of ATyr Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ATyr Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ATyr Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ATyr Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ATyr Pharma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ATyr Pharma. If investors know ATyr will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ATyr Pharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.94) | Revenue Per Share 0.007 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets (0.32) | Return On Equity (0.62) |
The market value of aTyr Pharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ATyr that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ATyr Pharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ATyr Pharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ATyr Pharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ATyr Pharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ATyr Pharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ATyr Pharma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ATyr Pharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.