Old National Bancorp Preferred Stock Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Under 22.93
| ONBPP Preferred Stock | USD 24.85 0.47 1.86% |
Old |
Old National Target Price Odds to finish below 22.93
The tendency of Old Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 22.93 or more in 90 days |
| 24.85 | 90 days | 22.93 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Old National to drop to $ 22.93 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Old National Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Old Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Old National Bancorp price to stay between $ 22.93 and its current price of $24.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.44 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Old National has a beta of 0.11. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Old National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Old National Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old National Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0184, implying that it can generate a 0.0184 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Old National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Old National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Old National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Old National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Old National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Old National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Old National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Old National Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Old National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Old National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Old Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Old National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Old National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 292.9 M | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0686 |
Old National Technical Analysis
Old National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Old Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Old National Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Old Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Old National Predictive Forecast Models
Old National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Old National's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Old National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Old National in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Old National's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Old National options trading.
Check out Old National Backtesting, Old National Valuation, Old National Correlation, Old National Hype Analysis, Old National Volatility, Old National History as well as Old National Performance. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Old Preferred Stock analysis
When running Old National's price analysis, check to measure Old National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Old National is operating at the current time. Most of Old National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Old National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Old National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Old National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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