Progressive Corp (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 46.60
| PGR Stock | EUR 46.60 0.60 1.30% |
Progressive |
Progressive Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 46.60
The tendency of Progressive Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 46.60 | 90 days | 46.60 | about 83.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Progressive Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 83.06 (This Progressive Corp probability density function shows the probability of Progressive Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Progressive Corp has a beta of -0.3 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Progressive Corp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Progressive Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Progressive Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Progressive Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Progressive Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Progressive Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Progressive Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Progressive Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Progressive Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Progressive Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Progressive Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Progressive Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.3 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Progressive Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Progressive Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Progressive Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Progressive Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Progressive Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Progressive Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Progressive Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Progressive Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Progressive Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 43.3 M |
Progressive Corp Technical Analysis
Progressive Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Progressive Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Progressive Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Progressive Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Progressive Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Progressive Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Progressive Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Progressive Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Progressive Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Progressive Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Progressive Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Progressive Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Progressive Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Progressive Stock
When determining whether Progressive Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Progressive Corp's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Progressive Corp's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Progressive Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Progressive Corp Backtesting, Progressive Corp Valuation, Progressive Corp Correlation, Progressive Corp Hype Analysis, Progressive Corp Volatility, Progressive Corp History as well as Progressive Corp Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Progressive Stock please use our How to Invest in Progressive Corp guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.