Tfs Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.65
| TFSL Stock | USD 12.52 0.27 2.20% |
Closest to current price TFS long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
TFS |
TFS Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 16.65
The tendency of TFS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 16.65 or more in 90 days |
| 12.52 | 90 days | 16.65 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TFS Financial to move over $ 16.65 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This TFS Financial probability density function shows the probability of TFS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TFS Financial price to stay between its current price of $ 12.52 and $ 16.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.27 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, TFS Financial will likely underperform. Additionally TFS Financial has an alpha of 0.0084, implying that it can generate a 0.008397 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TFS Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TFS Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TFS Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TFS Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TFS Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TFS Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TFS Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TFS Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TFS Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
TFS Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TFS Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TFS Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: TFS Financial Corps Dividend Analysis |
TFS Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TFS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TFS Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TFS Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 278.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 975.1 M |
TFS Financial Technical Analysis
TFS Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TFS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TFS Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing TFS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TFS Financial Predictive Forecast Models
TFS Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many TFS Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TFS Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about TFS Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about TFS Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TFS Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: TFS Financial Corps Dividend Analysis |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in TFS Stock
When determining whether TFS Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze TFS Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TFS Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TFS Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out TFS Financial Backtesting, TFS Financial Valuation, TFS Financial Correlation, TFS Financial Hype Analysis, TFS Financial Volatility, TFS Financial History as well as TFS Financial Performance. For more information on how to buy TFS Stock please use our How to buy in TFS Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TFS Financial. If investors know TFS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TFS Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.251 | Dividend Share 1.13 | Earnings Share 0.28 | Revenue Per Share 1.095 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.033 |
The market value of TFS Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TFS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TFS Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TFS Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TFS Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TFS Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TFS Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TFS Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TFS Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.