Telefnica Brasil (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 47.25
| VIVT3 Stock | BRL 44.53 0.50 1.14% |
Telefnica |
Telefnica Brasil Target Price Odds to finish over 47.25
The tendency of Telefnica Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 47.25 or more in 90 days |
| 44.53 | 90 days | 47.25 | about 61.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Telefnica Brasil to move over R$ 47.25 or more in 90 days from now is about 61.79 (This Telefnica Brasil SA probability density function shows the probability of Telefnica Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Telefnica Brasil price to stay between its current price of R$ 44.53 and R$ 47.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.29 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Telefnica Brasil SA has a beta of -0.19. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Telefnica Brasil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Telefnica Brasil SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Telefnica Brasil SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Telefnica Brasil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Telefnica Brasil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telefnica Brasil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Telefnica Brasil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Telefnica Brasil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Telefnica Brasil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Telefnica Brasil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Telefnica Brasil SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Telefnica Brasil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Telefnica Brasil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Telefnica Brasil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Telefnica Brasil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Telefnica Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Telefnica Brasil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Telefnica Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Telefnica Brasil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Telefnica Brasil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.5 B |
Telefnica Brasil Technical Analysis
Telefnica Brasil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Telefnica Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Telefnica Brasil SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Telefnica Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Telefnica Brasil Predictive Forecast Models
Telefnica Brasil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Telefnica Brasil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Telefnica Brasil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Telefnica Brasil
Checking the ongoing alerts about Telefnica Brasil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Telefnica Brasil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Telefnica Brasil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Additional Tools for Telefnica Stock Analysis
When running Telefnica Brasil's price analysis, check to measure Telefnica Brasil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telefnica Brasil is operating at the current time. Most of Telefnica Brasil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telefnica Brasil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telefnica Brasil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telefnica Brasil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.