Telefnica Brasil Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VIVT3 Stock | BRL 45.56 0.89 1.92% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Telefnica Brasil SA on the next trading day is expected to be 45.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.53. Telefnica Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Telefnica Brasil stock prices and determine the direction of Telefnica Brasil SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Telefnica Brasil's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telefnica Brasil to cross-verify your projections. Telefnica |
Most investors in Telefnica Brasil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Telefnica Brasil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Telefnica Brasil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Telefnica Brasil simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Telefnica Brasil SA are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Telefnica Brasil prices get older. Telefnica Brasil Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Telefnica Brasil SA on the next trading day is expected to be 45.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Telefnica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Telefnica Brasil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Telefnica Brasil Stock Forecast Pattern
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Telefnica Brasil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Telefnica Brasil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Telefnica Brasil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.87 and 47.25, respectively. We have considered Telefnica Brasil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Telefnica Brasil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Telefnica Brasil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6532 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1503 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5497 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.53 |
Predictive Modules for Telefnica Brasil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Telefnica Brasil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Telefnica Brasil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Telefnica Brasil
For every potential investor in Telefnica, whether a beginner or expert, Telefnica Brasil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Telefnica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Telefnica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Telefnica Brasil's price trends.Telefnica Brasil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Telefnica Brasil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Telefnica Brasil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Telefnica Brasil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Telefnica Brasil Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Telefnica Brasil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Telefnica Brasil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Telefnica Brasil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Telefnica Brasil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Telefnica Brasil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Telefnica Brasil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Telefnica Brasil SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 110595.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.68) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.97 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.85) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.89) |
Telefnica Brasil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Telefnica Brasil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Telefnica Brasil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting telefnica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Variance | 2.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Telefnica Brasil to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Telefnica Brasil information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Telefnica Brasil's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Telefnica Stock analysis
When running Telefnica Brasil's price analysis, check to measure Telefnica Brasil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telefnica Brasil is operating at the current time. Most of Telefnica Brasil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telefnica Brasil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telefnica Brasil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telefnica Brasil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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