Consumer Discretionary Select Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Over 175.91
| XLY Etf | USD 175.91 1.57 0.90% |
Closest to current price Consumer long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Consumer |
Consumer Discretionary Target Price Odds to finish over 175.91
The tendency of Consumer Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 175.91 | 90 days | 175.91 | about 71.48 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Consumer Discretionary to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 71.48 (This Consumer Discretionary Select probability density function shows the probability of Consumer Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the etf has the beta coefficient of 1.19 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Consumer Discretionary will likely underperform. Additionally Consumer Discretionary Select has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Consumer Discretionary Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Consumer Discretionary
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Consumer Discretionary. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Consumer Discretionary's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Consumer Discretionary Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Consumer Discretionary is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Consumer Discretionary's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Consumer Discretionary Select, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Consumer Discretionary within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Consumer Discretionary Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Consumer Discretionary for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Consumer Discretionary can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Latest headline from news.google.com: XLY, SBUX, ABNB, ORLY ETF Outflow Alert - Nasdaq | |
| The fund keeps 99.88% of its net assets in stocks |
Consumer Discretionary Technical Analysis
Consumer Discretionary's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Consumer Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Consumer Discretionary Select. In general, you should focus on analyzing Consumer Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Consumer Discretionary Predictive Forecast Models
Consumer Discretionary's time-series forecasting models is one of many Consumer Discretionary's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Consumer Discretionary's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Consumer Discretionary
Checking the ongoing alerts about Consumer Discretionary for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Consumer Discretionary help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Latest headline from news.google.com: XLY, SBUX, ABNB, ORLY ETF Outflow Alert - Nasdaq | |
| The fund keeps 99.88% of its net assets in stocks |
Check out Consumer Discretionary Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Consumer Discretionary Correlation, Consumer Discretionary Hype Analysis, Consumer Discretionary Volatility, Consumer Discretionary History as well as Consumer Discretionary Performance. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
The market value of Consumer Discretionary is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Consumer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Consumer Discretionary's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Consumer Discretionary's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Consumer Discretionary's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Consumer Discretionary's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Consumer Discretionary's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Consumer Discretionary is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Consumer Discretionary's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.