Geo Group Stock Price Prediction
| GEO Stock | USD 14.86 0.17 1.13% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
63
Oversold | Overbought |
Geo Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Geo shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Geo's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Geo and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Geo's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Geo Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Geo's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.24 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.01 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.37 | Wall Street Target Price 19.25 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Geo based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Geo stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Geo over a specific investment horizon. Using Geo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Geo Group from the perspective of Geo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Geo using Geo's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Geo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Geo's stock price.
Geo Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Geo's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Geo. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Geo stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Geo may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Geo and may potentially protect profits, hedge Geo with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.266 | Short Percent 0.2588 | Short Ratio 7.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 24.6 M | 50 Day MA 13.702 |
Geo Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Geo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Geo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Geo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Geo Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Geo's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Geo.
Geo Implied Volatility | 52.78 |
Geo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Geo Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Geo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Geo stock will not fluctuate a lot when Geo's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Geo. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Geo to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Geo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Geo after-hype prediction price | USD 14.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Geo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Geo Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.3% per day over the life of the 2024-05-03 option contract. With Geo trading at USD 14.86, that is roughly USD 0.49 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Geo's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Geo Group options at the current volatility level of 52.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Geo |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Geo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Geo After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Geo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Geo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Geo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Geo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Geo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Geo's historical news coverage. Geo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.20 and 17.24, respectively. We have considered Geo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Geo is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Geo Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Geo Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Geo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Geo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Geo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.45 | 2.52 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.86 | 14.72 | 0.94 |
|
Geo Hype Timeline
On the 1st of May Geo Group is traded for 14.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Geo is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.94%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.45%. The volatility of related hype on Geo is about 8640.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.85. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.51. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Geo Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 22nd of January 2021. The firm had 3:2 split on the 25th of April 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Geo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Geo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Geo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Geo's future price movements. Getting to know how Geo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Geo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NL | NL Industries | 0.14 | 7 per month | 1.58 | 0.23 | 5.01 | (2.76) | 16.65 | |
| MG | Mistras Group | (0.01) | 10 per month | 1.76 | 0.06 | 3.44 | (3.37) | 10.80 | |
| REZI | Resideo Technologies | (0.02) | 7 per month | 1.66 | 0.07 | 2.93 | (3.40) | 27.57 | |
| BRC | Brady | (0.55) | 8 per month | 1.59 | (0.05) | 1.44 | (2.40) | 7.35 | |
| BCO | Brinks Company | 0.16 | 11 per month | 1.38 | 0.06 | 1.94 | (2.24) | 6.94 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | (1.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.71 | (1.82) | 6.37 | |
| CIX | CompX International | (0.46) | 6 per month | 3.41 | 0.13 | 9.27 | (6.39) | 29.66 | |
| MSA | MSA Safety | 1.95 | 10 per month | 0.61 | 0.13 | 2.37 | (1.38) | 4.16 | |
| EVLVW | Evolv Technologies Holdings | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 20.00 | (16.33) | 72.74 | |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | 0.04 | 11 per month | 1.88 | 0.09 | 4.02 | (2.55) | 25.41 | |
| LDDFF | Liberty Defense Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.21 | 0.13 | 16.67 | (9.09) | 39.81 | |
| GFAI | Guardforce AI Co | (0.41) | 4 per month | 6.78 | 0.07 | 15.67 | (9.61) | 43.82 |
Geo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Geo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Geo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Geo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Geo Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Geo stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Geo Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Geo based on analysis of Geo hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Geo's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Geo's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0327 | 0.0294 | 0.0279 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
Story Coverage note for Geo
The number of cover stories for Geo depends on current market conditions and Geo's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Geo is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Geo's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Geo Short Properties
Geo's future price predictability will typically decrease when Geo's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Geo Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Geo's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Geo's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 123.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 94 M |
Check out Geo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Geo Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Geo's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Complementary Tools for Geo Stock analysis
When running Geo's price analysis, check to measure Geo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Geo is operating at the current time. Most of Geo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Geo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Geo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Geo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals |
Is Geo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Geo. If investors know Geo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Geo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | Earnings Share 0.72 | Revenue Per Share 19.795 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0592 |
The market value of Geo Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Geo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Geo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Geo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Geo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Geo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Geo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Geo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.