Baring US (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE0000830459 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 25.67  0.00  0.00%

    Baring US probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Baring US Reserve A USD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Baring US time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Baring US odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Baring US Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     25.67 30 days 25.67  ABOUT 5.14%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Baring US to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 5.14% (This Baring US Reserve A USD probability density function shows the probability of Baring US Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Baring US has beta of 3.0E-4 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Baring US average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Baring US Reserve A USD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Baring US Reserve A USD has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Baring US Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.0073
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0003
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =11.48
    Ir
    Information ratio =15.62

    Baring US Alerts

    Baring US Alerts and Suggestions

    Baring US Reserve is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Baring US Reserve A USD generated five year return of -1.0%
    This fund retains about 83.94% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    Price Density Drivers

    Baring US Health Indicators

    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
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