Centurylink Stock Story


USD 10.87  0.10  0.91%   

Centurylink Invested Capital Average is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Invested Capital Average is estimated at 56.76 Billion. Market Capitalization is expected to rise to about 14 B this year, although the value of Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA will most likely fall to about 6.9 B. The goal of this thesis is to forecast a future value of Centurylink using technical analysis. What exactly are Centurylink institutional investors should expect in July?
Published over a month ago
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What can we learn from Centurylink (NYSE:LUMN) latest price fluctuation

Centurylink is OVERVALUED at 11.12 per share with modest projections ahead. Over 80.0% of Centurylink shares are owned by institutional investors. Institutional ownership of Centurylink refers to the amount of Centurylink equity owned by mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, investment firms, foundations, or other large entities that manage money on behalf of others. Check out our latest analysis of Centurylink, including its current ownership diagnostics.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Centurylink. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for Centurylink

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Centurylink's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Centurylink in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Centurylink. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Centurylink's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Centurylink's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Centurylink.

How important is Centurylink's Liquidity

Centurylink financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Centurylink ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Centurylink financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Centurylink's total debt and its cash.

How does Centurylink utilize its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Centurylink, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Centurylink is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Centurylink cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Centurylink Net Cash Flow from Operations is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Net Cash Flow from Operations is estimated at 6.65 Billion

Acquisition by Kevin Chilton of 18514 shares of Centurylink subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Centurylink insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Centurylink insider trading alert for grant of common stock by Kevin Chilton, the corporate stakeholder, on 19th of May 2022. This event was filed by Lumen Technologies Inc with SEC on 2022-05-19. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking it down

Centurylink currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.1 and Jensen Alpha of 0.22. However, we advise investors to further question Centurylink expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Centurylink's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Centurylink's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Centurylink Implied Volatility

Centurylink's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Centurylink stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Centurylink's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Centurylink stock will not fluctuate a lot when Centurylink's options are near their expiration.

Returns Breakdown

Return on Assets
Return on Equity
Return Capital
Return on Assets0.0378
Return on Equity0.19
Return Capital0.0809
Return on Sales0.23

Another small slide for Centurylink

Latest downside variance is at 6.13.
As of the 11th of June 2022, Centurylink shows the Mean Deviation of 1.63, risk adjusted performance of 0.0899, and Downside Deviation of 2.48. In respect to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model gives you tools to check existing technical drivers of Centurylink, as well as the relationship between them. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We have collected data for nineteen technical drivers for Centurylink, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Centurylink standard deviation, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and expected short fall to decide if Centurylink is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 11.27 per share. Given that Centurylink has jensen alpha of 0.2192, we suggest you to validate Centurylink's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Bottom Line On Centurylink

Whereas some firms within the telecom services industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Centurylink may offer a potential longer-term growth to institutional investors. The inconsistency in the assessment between current Centurylink valuation and our trade advice on Centurylink is due to the recent market swings and your selection of investing horizon. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Centurylink.

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Centurylink. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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