Expected Short fall

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Expected shortfall (or ES) is a risk measure that evaluates the market risk of an equity instrument. It is an alternative to value at risk that is more sensitive to the shape of the loss distribution in the tail of the distribution. The expected shortfall at a particular level is the expected return on the portfolio in the worst percent of the cases. Expected shortfall is also called conditional value at risk (CVaR), average value at risk (AVaR), and expected tail loss (ETL).

Expected Shortfall 
=  
Conditional VAR 

ES evaluates the value (or risk) of an investment in a conservative way, focusing on the less profitable outcomes. For high values of it ignores the most profitable but unlikely possibilities, for small values of it focuses on the worst losses. On the other hand, unlike the discounted maximum loss even for lower values of expected shortfall does not consider only the single most catastrophic outcome. Expected shortfall is a coherent, and moreover a spectral, measure of financial portfolio risk.

Expected Short fall In A Nutshell

The expected shortfall is a sensitive way of figuring out the risk of a portfolio against the benchmark. Essentially, it is focusing on the worst outcomes and gives you a number of what would happen to the position does not pan out accordingly.

When you look at a fund or investment, many people focus on the potential gains and what they might receive, but they may fail to realize that there is a potential downside or expected shortfall.

Closer Look at Expected Short fall

When you look at an investment, the first aspect and most enticing is the potential profits you may gain by investing in the position. This is the most enjoyable aspect but is equally important because you want to know what you are expecting in return. You wouldn’t lend your money without knowing what you’re getting in return and investing is no different.

The second aspect is the potential losses, which is equally or more important than the profits because you need to know how much loss you can take before you need to exit your position. Losses need to be considered and used to set a stop loss, or a point where you will leave the position no matter what.

Lastly, is the risk associated with the position, and this is where expected shortfalls can come in handy. Risk is something you want to keep low while gaining as much exposure as desired to generate the returns necessary for you to invest. Risk can be all over the board for different people and should be watched closely.

Expected shortfall will certainly help you in this area of investing and should be used in your research. Of course there are the articles and opinions out there for whatever you are investing in, but that doesn’t necessarily help you. With all of that being said, test it out for yourself and see if it is something you want to implement in the future. If you get stuck or need help, join an investing community and bounce ideas off of people for real time feedback. At the very least you will have the knowledge on hand to use in the future if need be.