California Municipal Portfolio Fund Market Value
| ACMCX Fund | USD 13.72 0.02 0.15% |
| Symbol | California |
California Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to California Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of California Municipal.
| 03/30/2024 |
| 04/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in California Municipal on March 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding California Municipal Portfolio or generate 0.0% return on investment in California Municipal over 30 days. California Municipal is related to or competes with Morningstar Unconstrained, Thrivent High, High Yield, Via Renewables, and T Rowe. The fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in a portfolio of municipal securities issued by the State of Cal... More
California Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure California Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess California Municipal Portfolio upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.83) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.508 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.22) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1456 |
California Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for California Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as California Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use California Municipal historical prices to predict the future California Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.23) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of California Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
California Municipal Backtested Returns
California Municipal secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0721, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0721% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. California Municipal Portfolio exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm California Municipal's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06), standard deviation of 0.1111, and Mean Deviation of 0.0792 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0584, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, California Municipal's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding California Municipal is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.35 |
Below average predictability
California Municipal Portfolio has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between California Municipal time series from 30th of March 2024 to 14th of April 2024 and 14th of April 2024 to 29th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of California Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of 0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current California Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.35 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
California Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is California Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting California Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of California Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that California Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
California Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If California Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if California Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in California Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
California Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating California Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of California Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. California Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, California Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between California Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in California Municipal Portfolio.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards California Municipal in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, California Municipal's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from California Municipal options trading.
Pair Trading with California Municipal
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if California Municipal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in California Municipal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with California Mutual Fund
| 0.96 | AMNCX | Ab Minnesota Portfolio | PairCorr |
| 0.96 | AMNAX | Ab Minnesota Portfolio | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to California Municipal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace California Municipal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back California Municipal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling California Municipal Portfolio to buy it.
The correlation of California Municipal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as California Municipal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if California Municipal moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for California Municipal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out California Municipal Correlation, California Municipal Volatility and California Municipal Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on California Municipal. Note that the California Municipal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other California Municipal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
California Municipal technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.