TotalEnergies (France) Market Value
| EC Stock | EUR 172.00 6.00 3.37% |
| Symbol | TotalEnergies |
TotalEnergies 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TotalEnergies' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TotalEnergies.
| 12/13/2023 |
| 06/10/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TotalEnergies on December 13, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TotalEnergies EP Gabon or generate 0.0% return on investment in TotalEnergies over 180 days. TotalEnergies is related to or competes with Vallourec, Eramet SA, Soitec SA, and Nexans SA. Total Gabon engages in the mining, exploration, and production of crude oil in Gabon More
TotalEnergies Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TotalEnergies' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TotalEnergies EP Gabon upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1259 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.8 |
TotalEnergies Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TotalEnergies' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TotalEnergies' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TotalEnergies historical prices to predict the future TotalEnergies' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0924 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1525 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1404 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1175 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.5744 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TotalEnergies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TotalEnergies EP Gabon Backtested Returns
We consider TotalEnergies very steady. TotalEnergies EP Gabon owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which indicates the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for TotalEnergies EP Gabon, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate TotalEnergies' Coefficient Of Variation of 709.52, semi deviation of 1.02, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0924 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. TotalEnergies has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.27, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, TotalEnergies' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding TotalEnergies is expected to be smaller as well. TotalEnergies EP Gabon right now has a risk of 1.18%. Please validate TotalEnergies sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to decide if TotalEnergies will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.15 |
Insignificant predictability
TotalEnergies EP Gabon has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TotalEnergies time series from 13th of December 2023 to 12th of March 2024 and 12th of March 2024 to 10th of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TotalEnergies EP Gabon price movement. The serial correlation of 0.15 indicates that less than 15.0% of current TotalEnergies price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.15 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 27.66 |
TotalEnergies EP Gabon lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TotalEnergies stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TotalEnergies' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TotalEnergies returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TotalEnergies has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TotalEnergies regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TotalEnergies stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TotalEnergies stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TotalEnergies stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TotalEnergies Lagged Returns
When evaluating TotalEnergies' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TotalEnergies stock have on its future price. TotalEnergies autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TotalEnergies autocorrelation shows the relationship between TotalEnergies stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TotalEnergies EP Gabon.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in TotalEnergies Stock
TotalEnergies financial ratios help investors to determine whether TotalEnergies Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TotalEnergies with respect to the benefits of owning TotalEnergies security.