Turkiye Garanti (Turkey) Market Value
| GARAN Stock | TRY 107.80 5.20 5.07% |
| Symbol | Turkiye |
Turkiye Garanti 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Turkiye Garanti's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Turkiye Garanti.
| 03/04/2024 |
| 06/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Turkiye Garanti on March 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Turkiye Garanti Bankasi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Turkiye Garanti over 90 days. Turkiye Garanti is related to or competes with Turkiye Petrol, Turkiye Sise, Qnb Finansbank, Eregli Demir, Koc Holding, and Turkiye Is. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. provides various banking products and services More
Turkiye Garanti Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Turkiye Garanti's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Turkiye Garanti Bankasi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.3104 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.21 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.69 |
Turkiye Garanti Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Turkiye Garanti's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Turkiye Garanti's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Turkiye Garanti historical prices to predict the future Turkiye Garanti's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2126 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.8337 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.6836 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.4195 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (4.90) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Turkiye Garanti's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Backtested Returns
Turkiye Garanti is very steady given 3 months investment horizon. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.42, which indicates the firm had a 0.42% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to interpolate thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.06% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Coefficient Of Variation of 304.76, risk adjusted performance of 0.2126, and Semi Deviation of 1.3 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Turkiye Garanti holds a performance score of 33 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The entity has a beta of -0.17, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Turkiye Garanti are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Turkiye Garanti is likely to outperform the market. Use Turkiye Garanti Bankasi maximum drawdown, accumulation distribution, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the semi variance and day typical price , to analyze future returns on Turkiye Garanti Bankasi.
Auto-correlation | 0.93 |
Excellent predictability
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Turkiye Garanti time series from 4th of March 2024 to 18th of April 2024 and 18th of April 2024 to 2nd of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Turkiye Garanti Bankasi price movement. The serial correlation of 0.93 indicates that approximately 93.0% of current Turkiye Garanti price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.93 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.91 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 87.05 |
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Turkiye Garanti stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Turkiye Garanti's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Turkiye Garanti returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Turkiye Garanti has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Turkiye Garanti regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Turkiye Garanti stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Turkiye Garanti stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Turkiye Garanti stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Turkiye Garanti Lagged Returns
When evaluating Turkiye Garanti's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Turkiye Garanti stock have on its future price. Turkiye Garanti autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Turkiye Garanti autocorrelation shows the relationship between Turkiye Garanti stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Turkiye Garanti Bankasi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Turkiye Garanti
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Turkiye Garanti position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Turkiye Garanti will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Turkiye Stock
| 0.91 | BAYRK | Bayrak EBT Taban | PairCorr |
Moving against Turkiye Stock
| 0.42 | PAMEL | Pamel Yenilenebilir | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Turkiye Garanti could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Turkiye Garanti when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Turkiye Garanti - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Turkiye Garanti Bankasi to buy it.
The correlation of Turkiye Garanti is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Turkiye Garanti moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Turkiye Garanti Bankasi moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Turkiye Garanti can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Turkiye Garanti Correlation, Turkiye Garanti Volatility and Turkiye Garanti Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Turkiye Garanti. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Turkiye Stock analysis
When running Turkiye Garanti's price analysis, check to measure Turkiye Garanti's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Turkiye Garanti is operating at the current time. Most of Turkiye Garanti's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Turkiye Garanti's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Turkiye Garanti's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Turkiye Garanti to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Turkiye Garanti technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.