Nusa Raya (Indonesia) Market Value
| NRCA Stock | IDR 326.00 2.00 0.61% |
| Symbol | Nusa |
Nusa Raya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nusa Raya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nusa Raya.
| 05/18/2024 |
| 06/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nusa Raya on May 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nusa Raya Cipta or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nusa Raya over 30 days. Nusa Raya is related to or competes with Sumi Indo, Indospring Tbk, and Indorama Synthetics. More
Nusa Raya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nusa Raya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nusa Raya Cipta upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0681 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.81) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.33 |
Nusa Raya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nusa Raya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nusa Raya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nusa Raya historical prices to predict the future Nusa Raya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0733 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1079 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0621 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0725 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3749 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nusa Raya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nusa Raya Cipta Backtested Returns
We consider Nusa Raya very steady. Nusa Raya Cipta has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0985, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0985% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Nusa Raya, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Nusa Raya's Mean Deviation of 0.9265, downside deviation of 1.21, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0733 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Nusa Raya has a performance score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.31, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Nusa Raya's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Nusa Raya is expected to be smaller as well. Nusa Raya Cipta right now secures a risk of 1.07%. Please verify Nusa Raya Cipta maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Nusa Raya Cipta will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
Nusa Raya Cipta has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nusa Raya time series from 18th of May 2024 to 2nd of June 2024 and 2nd of June 2024 to 17th of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nusa Raya Cipta price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Nusa Raya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.11 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.39 |
Nusa Raya Cipta lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nusa Raya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nusa Raya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nusa Raya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nusa Raya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nusa Raya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nusa Raya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nusa Raya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nusa Raya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nusa Raya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nusa Raya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nusa Raya stock have on its future price. Nusa Raya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nusa Raya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nusa Raya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nusa Raya Cipta.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Nusa Stock
Nusa Raya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nusa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nusa with respect to the benefits of owning Nusa Raya security.