United Paper (Thailand) Market Value
| UTP Stock | THB 11.00 0.10 0.90% |
| Symbol | United |
United Paper 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to United Paper's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of United Paper.
| 06/17/2022 |
| 06/06/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in United Paper on June 17, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United Paper Public or generate 0.0% return on investment in United Paper over 720 days. United Paper is related to or competes with Land, TISCO Financial, Haad Thip, Thai Metal, Country Group, Steel Public, and Srisawad Capital. United Paper Public Company Limited produces and distributes box surface paper and Kraft paper for packaging corrugated ... More
United Paper Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure United Paper's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess United Paper Public upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.72) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.72 |
United Paper Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for United Paper's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as United Paper's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use United Paper historical prices to predict the future United Paper's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (4.18) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Paper's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Paper Public Backtested Returns
United Paper Public owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0884, which indicates the firm had a -0.0884% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. United Paper Public exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate United Paper's Coefficient Of Variation of (1,958), risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Variance of 1.07 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.015, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, United Paper's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding United Paper is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, United Paper Public has a negative expected return of -0.0938%. Please make sure to validate United Paper's total risk alpha, skewness, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to decide if United Paper Public performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.11 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
United Paper Public has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United Paper time series from 17th of June 2022 to 12th of June 2023 and 12th of June 2023 to 6th of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United Paper Public price movement. The serial correlation of -0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current United Paper price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.11 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
United Paper Public lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is United Paper stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting United Paper's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of United Paper returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that United Paper has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
United Paper regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If United Paper stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if United Paper stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in United Paper stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
United Paper Lagged Returns
When evaluating United Paper's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of United Paper stock have on its future price. United Paper autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, United Paper autocorrelation shows the relationship between United Paper stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in United Paper Public.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in United Stock
United Paper financial ratios help investors to determine whether United Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in United with respect to the benefits of owning United Paper security.