Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock Price Prediction
| MPC Stock | USD 184.03 1.48 0.81% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Marathon Petroleum Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Marathon Petroleum shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Marathon Petroleum's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Marathon Petroleum and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Marathon Petroleum's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Marathon Petroleum Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Marathon Petroleum's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 6.52 | EPS Estimate Current Year 18.51 | EPS Estimate Next Year 16.63 | Wall Street Target Price 220.64 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Marathon Petroleum based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Marathon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Marathon Petroleum over a specific investment horizon. Using Marathon Petroleum hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marathon Petroleum Corp from the perspective of Marathon Petroleum response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Marathon Petroleum using Marathon Petroleum's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Marathon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Marathon Petroleum's stock price.
Marathon Petroleum Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Marathon Petroleum's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Marathon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Marathon Petroleum stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Marathon Petroleum may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Marathon Petroleum and may potentially protect profits, hedge Marathon Petroleum with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 160.7125 | Short Percent 0.022 | Short Ratio 2.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.7 M | 50 Day MA 193.232 |
Marathon Petroleum Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Marathon Petroleum's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Marathon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Marathon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Marathon Petroleum Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Marathon Petroleum's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Marathon Petroleum.
Marathon Petroleum Implied Volatility | 30.11 |
Marathon Petroleum's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Marathon Petroleum Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Marathon Petroleum's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Marathon Petroleum stock will not fluctuate a lot when Marathon Petroleum's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Marathon Petroleum. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Marathon Petroleum to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Marathon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Marathon Petroleum after-hype prediction price | USD 184.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Marathon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Marathon Petroleum Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.88% per day over the life of the 2024-05-10 option contract. With Marathon Petroleum trading at USD 184.03, that is roughly USD 3.46 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Marathon Petroleum's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Marathon Petroleum Corp options at the current volatility level of 30.11%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Marathon |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marathon Petroleum's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marathon Petroleum After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marathon Petroleum at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marathon Petroleum or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marathon Petroleum, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marathon Petroleum Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marathon Petroleum's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marathon Petroleum's historical news coverage. Marathon Petroleum's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 182.30 and 186.04, respectively. We have considered Marathon Petroleum's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marathon Petroleum is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marathon Petroleum Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marathon Petroleum Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marathon Petroleum is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marathon Petroleum backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marathon Petroleum, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.87 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
184.03 | 184.17 | 0.08 |
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Marathon Petroleum Hype Timeline
On the 6th of May Marathon Petroleum Corp is traded for 184.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Marathon is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 184.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Marathon Petroleum is about 3116.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 184.02. The company reported the last year's revenue of 148.46 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 9.67 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 26.57 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Marathon Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Marathon Petroleum Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marathon Petroleum's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. Getting to know how Marathon Petroleum's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marathon Petroleum may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | (0.68) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.58 | (2.15) | 13.97 | |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | 0.56 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.08 | (2.29) | 7.20 |
Marathon Petroleum Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marathon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marathon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marathon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Marathon Petroleum Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Marathon Petroleum stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Marathon Petroleum Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Marathon Petroleum based on analysis of Marathon Petroleum hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Marathon Petroleum's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Marathon Petroleum's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0366 | 0.0215 | 0.0209 | 0.0207 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 0.25 |
Story Coverage note for Marathon Petroleum
The number of cover stories for Marathon Petroleum depends on current market conditions and Marathon Petroleum's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marathon Petroleum is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marathon Petroleum's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Marathon Petroleum Short Properties
Marathon Petroleum's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marathon Petroleum's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marathon Petroleum Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marathon Petroleum's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marathon Petroleum's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 409 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.2 B |
Check out Marathon Petroleum Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Complementary Tools for Marathon Stock analysis
When running Marathon Petroleum's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Petroleum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Petroleum is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Petroleum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Petroleum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Petroleum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Petroleum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marathon Petroleum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Petroleum. If investors know Marathon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marathon Petroleum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.58) | Dividend Share 3.225 | Earnings Share 20.12 | Revenue Per Share 381.603 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Marathon Petroleum Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marathon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marathon Petroleum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marathon Petroleum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marathon Petroleum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marathon Petroleum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marathon Petroleum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marathon Petroleum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marathon Petroleum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.