Nikola Corp Stock Price Prediction
| NKLA Stock | USD 6.63 0.06 0.91% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
37
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (2.54) | EPS Estimate Current Year (10.20) | EPS Estimate Next Year (7.68) | Wall Street Target Price 17.2 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (2.82) |
Using Nikola Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nikola Corp from the perspective of Nikola Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Nikola Corp using Nikola Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Nikola using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Nikola Corp's stock price.
Nikola Corp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Nikola Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Nikola. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Nikola Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 18.4278 | Short Percent 0.2141 | Short Ratio 4.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.2 M | 50 Day MA 8.5801 |
Nikola Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Nikola Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Nikola. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nikola can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nikola Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Nikola Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Nikola Corp.
Nikola Corp Implied Volatility | 79.58 |
Nikola Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nikola Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nikola Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nikola Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nikola Corp's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Nikola Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Nikola because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Nikola Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 6.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Nikola contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Nikola Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.97% per day over the life of the 2024-09-06 option contract. With Nikola Corp trading at USD 6.63, that is roughly USD 0.33 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Nikola Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Nikola Corp options at the current volatility level of 79.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Nikola |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nikola Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nikola Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nikola Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nikola Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nikola Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nikola Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nikola Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nikola Corp's historical news coverage. Nikola Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.33 and 13.55, respectively. We have considered Nikola Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nikola Corp is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nikola Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nikola Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nikola Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nikola Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nikola Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.11 | 6.88 | 0.01 | 0.95 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.63 | 6.62 | 0.15 |
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Nikola Corp Hype Timeline
Nikola Corp is now traded for 6.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.95. Nikola is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.62. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.11%. The volatility of related hype on Nikola Corp is about 800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.68. About 27.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.64. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Nikola Corp recorded a loss per share of 25.0. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:30 split on the 25th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Nikola Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Nikola Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nikola Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nikola Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Nikola Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nikola Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LNN | Lindsay | (1.89) | 6 per month | 2.08 | 0.03 | 3.31 | (2.89) | 22.27 | |
| OSK | Oshkosh | 0.17 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.67 | (3.16) | 10.39 |
Nikola Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nikola price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nikola using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nikola charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Nikola Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Nikola Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Nikola Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Nikola Corp based on analysis of Nikola Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Nikola Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Nikola Corp's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 277.01 | 203.83 | PTB Ratio | 29.19 | 27.73 |
Story Coverage note for Nikola Corp
The number of cover stories for Nikola Corp depends on current market conditions and Nikola Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nikola Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nikola Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Nikola Corp Short Properties
Nikola Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nikola Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nikola Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nikola Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nikola Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 800 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 465.9 M |
Complementary Tools for Nikola Stock analysis
When running Nikola Corp's price analysis, check to measure Nikola Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nikola Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Nikola Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nikola Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nikola Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nikola Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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