Deutsche Real Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAAPX Fund  USD 11.76  0.06  0.51%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deutsche Real Assets on the next trading day is expected to be 11.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.55. Deutsche Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Deutsche Real is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Deutsche Real Assets value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Deutsche Real Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Deutsche Real Assets on the next trading day is expected to be 11.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deutsche Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deutsche Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Deutsche Real Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Deutsche Real Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Deutsche Real's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deutsche Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.14 and 12.43, respectively. We have considered Deutsche Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.76
11.79
Expected Value
12.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deutsche Real mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deutsche Real mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9987
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0583
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0051
SAESum of the absolute errors3.5542
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Deutsche Real Assets. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Deutsche Real. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Deutsche Real

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deutsche Real Assets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deutsche Real's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.1111.7612.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.0311.6812.33
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Deutsche Real

For every potential investor in Deutsche, whether a beginner or expert, Deutsche Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deutsche Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deutsche. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deutsche Real's price trends.

Deutsche Real Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Deutsche Real mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Deutsche Real could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Deutsche Real by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Deutsche Real Assets Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Deutsche Real's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Deutsche Real's current price.

Deutsche Real Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deutsche Real mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deutsche Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deutsche Real mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Deutsche Real Assets entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Deutsche Real Risk Indicators

The analysis of Deutsche Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deutsche Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deutsche mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Deutsche Mutual Fund

Deutsche Real financial ratios help investors to determine whether Deutsche Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Deutsche with respect to the benefits of owning Deutsche Real security.
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