AES Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| AES Stock | EUR 19.83 0.61 3.17% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 19.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.97. AES Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AES stock prices and determine the direction of The AES's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AES's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AES to cross-verify your projections. AES |
Most investors in AES cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AES's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AES's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for AES is based on an artificially constructed time series of AES daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. AES 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of June
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 19.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AES Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AES | AES Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AES Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AES's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AES's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.11 and 21.59, respectively. We have considered AES's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AES stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AES stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 103.1708 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4394 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7542 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0453 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.9713 |
Predictive Modules for AES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for AES
For every potential investor in AES, whether a beginner or expert, AES's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AES Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AES. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AES's price trends.AES Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AES stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AES could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AES by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AES Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AES's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AES's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AES Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AES stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AES shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AES stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The AES entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AES Risk Indicators
The analysis of AES's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AES's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.23 | |||
| Variance | 4.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether AES is a strong investment it is important to analyze AES's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AES's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AES Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AES to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for AES Stock analysis
When running AES's price analysis, check to measure AES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AES is operating at the current time. Most of AES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities |