Rio Tinto Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Rio Tinto is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Rio Tinto Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Rio Tinto Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rio Tinto Group on the next trading day is expected to be 76.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.33.

Rio Tinto Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rio Tinto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rio Tinto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Rio Tinto Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Rio Tinto. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Rio Tinto

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rio Tinto Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 76.87 78.46 80.05 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 75.83 77.42 79.01 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 77.52 80.37 83.23 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rio Tinto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rio Tinto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rio Tinto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rio Tinto Group.

Other Forecasting Options for Rio Tinto

For every potential investor in Rio, whether a beginner or expert, Rio Tinto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rio Tinto's price trends.

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Risk & Return

Correlation

Rio Tinto Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rio Tinto's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rio Tinto's current price.

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Altman Z Score Details

Intrinsic Valuation Details

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between Rio Tinto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rio Tinto is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rio Tinto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.