First Bancshares, Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FBMS Stock | USD 23.82 0.28 1.16% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The First Bancshares, on the next trading day is expected to be 23.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.05. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
First |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Bancshares,'s spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Bancshares,'s options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Bancshares, stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Bancshares,'s open interest, investors have to compare it to First Bancshares,'s spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Bancshares, is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in First Bancshares, cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Bancshares,'s time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Bancshares,'s price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for First Bancshares, works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. First Bancshares, Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The First Bancshares, on the next trading day is expected to be 23.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Bancshares,'s next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Bancshares, Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Bancshares, | First Bancshares, Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Bancshares, Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Bancshares,'s Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Bancshares,'s downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.83 and 25.56, respectively. We have considered First Bancshares,'s daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Bancshares, stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Bancshares, stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0766 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4247 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.0546 |
Predictive Modules for First Bancshares,
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Bancshares,. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Bancshares,'s price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for First Bancshares,
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Bancshares,'s price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Bancshares,'s price trends.First Bancshares, Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Bancshares, stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Bancshares, could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Bancshares, by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Bancshares, Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Bancshares,'s price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Bancshares,'s current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Bancshares, Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Bancshares, stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Bancshares, shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Bancshares, stock market strength indicators, traders can identify The First Bancshares, entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
First Bancshares, Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Bancshares,'s basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Bancshares,'s investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with First Bancshares,
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if First Bancshares, position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in First Bancshares, will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with First Stock
| 0.63 | AX | Axos Financial Fiscal Year End 25th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to First Bancshares, could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace First Bancshares, when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back First Bancshares, - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling The First Bancshares, to buy it.
The correlation of First Bancshares, is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as First Bancshares, moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if First Bancshares, moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for First Bancshares, can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Bancshares,'s price analysis, check to measure First Bancshares,'s market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Bancshares, is operating at the current time. Most of First Bancshares,'s value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Bancshares,'s future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Bancshares,'s price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Bancshares, to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.