Fresenius Medical Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FMS Stock | USD 20.71 0.61 3.03% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Fresenius Medical Care on the next trading day is expected to be 21.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.97. Fresenius Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fresenius Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Fresenius Medical Care's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fresenius Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fresenius Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fresenius Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fresenius Medical fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fresenius Medical to cross-verify your projections. Fresenius |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Fresenius Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fresenius Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fresenius Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fresenius Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fresenius Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fresenius Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fresenius Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fresenius. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fresenius Medical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fresenius Medical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fresenius Medical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Fresenius Medical polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Fresenius Medical Care as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Fresenius Medical Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Fresenius Medical Care on the next trading day is expected to be 21.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fresenius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fresenius Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fresenius Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fresenius Medical | Fresenius Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fresenius Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fresenius Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fresenius Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.71 and 23.89, respectively. We have considered Fresenius Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fresenius Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fresenius Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8761 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4258 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.973 |
Predictive Modules for Fresenius Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fresenius Medical Care. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fresenius Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fresenius Medical
For every potential investor in Fresenius, whether a beginner or expert, Fresenius Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fresenius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fresenius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fresenius Medical's price trends.View Fresenius Medical Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fresenius Medical Care Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fresenius Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fresenius Medical's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fresenius Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fresenius Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fresenius Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fresenius Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fresenius Medical Care entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fresenius Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fresenius Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fresenius Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fresenius stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fresenius Medical to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Fresenius Stock analysis
When running Fresenius Medical's price analysis, check to measure Fresenius Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fresenius Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Fresenius Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fresenius Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fresenius Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fresenius Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fresenius Medical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fresenius Medical. If investors know Fresenius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fresenius Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.353 | Dividend Share 1.19 | Earnings Share 0.91 | Revenue Per Share 33.1505 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Fresenius Medical Care is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fresenius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fresenius Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fresenius Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fresenius Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fresenius Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fresenius Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fresenius Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fresenius Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.