Immatics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IMTX Stock  USD 12.95  0.17  1.30%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Immatics NV on the next trading day is expected to be 13.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.08. Immatics Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Immatics' Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 0.16 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 14.45 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to rise to about 45.3 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 70.8 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Immatics Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Immatics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Immatics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Immatics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Immatics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Immatics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Immatics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Immatics. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Immatics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Immatics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Immatics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Immatics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Immatics NV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Immatics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of June 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Immatics NV on the next trading day is expected to be 13.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Immatics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Immatics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Immatics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Immatics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Immatics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Immatics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.56 and 17.32, respectively. We have considered Immatics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.95
13.44
Expected Value
17.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Immatics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Immatics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3901
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3128
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0283
SAESum of the absolute errors19.0803
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Immatics NV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Immatics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Immatics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Immatics NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Immatics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.1012.9816.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.8415.7219.60
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.7611.9914.22
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.4119.1321.23
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Immatics

For every potential investor in Immatics, whether a beginner or expert, Immatics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Immatics Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Immatics. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Immatics' price trends.

Immatics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Immatics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Immatics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Immatics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Immatics NV Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Immatics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Immatics' current price.

Immatics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Immatics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Immatics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Immatics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Immatics NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Immatics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Immatics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Immatics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting immatics stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Immatics Stock Analysis

When running Immatics' price analysis, check to measure Immatics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Immatics is operating at the current time. Most of Immatics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Immatics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Immatics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Immatics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.