KeyCorp Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| KEY Stock | EUR 13.69 0.19 1.37% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of KeyCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.49. KeyCorp Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast KeyCorp stock prices and determine the direction of KeyCorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of KeyCorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KeyCorp to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in KeyCorp Stock please use our How to Invest in KeyCorp guide.KeyCorp |
Most investors in KeyCorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the KeyCorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets KeyCorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for KeyCorp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. KeyCorp 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of KeyCorp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KeyCorp Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KeyCorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KeyCorp Stock Forecast Pattern
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KeyCorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting KeyCorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KeyCorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.07 and 15.52, respectively. We have considered KeyCorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KeyCorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KeyCorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.048 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0405 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2154 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.495 |
Predictive Modules for KeyCorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KeyCorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KeyCorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for KeyCorp
For every potential investor in KeyCorp, whether a beginner or expert, KeyCorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KeyCorp Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KeyCorp. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KeyCorp's price trends.KeyCorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KeyCorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KeyCorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KeyCorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KeyCorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KeyCorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KeyCorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
KeyCorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KeyCorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KeyCorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KeyCorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KeyCorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.69 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.1) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.19) |
KeyCorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of KeyCorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KeyCorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting keycorp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KeyCorp to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in KeyCorp Stock please use our How to Invest in KeyCorp guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for KeyCorp Stock analysis
When running KeyCorp's price analysis, check to measure KeyCorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KeyCorp is operating at the current time. Most of KeyCorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KeyCorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KeyCorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KeyCorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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