Liberty Global Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

LBTYA Stock  USD 18.68  0.01  0.05%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Liberty Global PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 19.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.81. Liberty Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Liberty Global stock prices and determine the direction of Liberty Global PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Liberty Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Liberty Global's Payables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.18, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 4.37. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 573.8 M. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 2.4 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-07-19 Liberty Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Liberty Global's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Liberty Global's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Liberty Global stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Liberty Global's open interest, investors have to compare it to Liberty Global's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Liberty Global is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Liberty. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Liberty Global cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Liberty Global's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Liberty Global's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2003-12-31
Previous Quarter
1.4 B
Current Value
1.1 B
Quarterly Volatility
1.4 B
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Liberty Global is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Liberty Global PLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Liberty Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of July 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Liberty Global PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 19.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Liberty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Liberty Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Liberty Global Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Liberty GlobalLiberty Global Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Liberty Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Liberty Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Liberty Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.44 and 20.80, respectively. We have considered Liberty Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.68
19.12
Expected Value
20.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Liberty Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Liberty Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3674
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3248
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors19.8122
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Liberty Global PLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Liberty Global. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Liberty Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Liberty Global PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Liberty Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.0218.7020.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.8122.2723.95
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
24.1826.5729.49
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.89-0.73-0.57
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Liberty Global

For every potential investor in Liberty, whether a beginner or expert, Liberty Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Liberty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Liberty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Liberty Global's price trends.

Liberty Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Liberty Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Liberty Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Liberty Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Liberty Global PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Liberty Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Liberty Global's current price.

Liberty Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Liberty Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Liberty Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Liberty Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Liberty Global PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Liberty Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Liberty Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Liberty Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting liberty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Liberty Stock

When determining whether Liberty Global PLC is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Liberty Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Liberty Global Plc Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Liberty Global Plc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Global to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Liberty Global. If investors know Liberty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Liberty Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.68)
Earnings Share
(6.61)
Revenue Per Share
18.617
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.041
Return On Assets
(0)
The market value of Liberty Global PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Liberty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Liberty Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Liberty Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Liberty Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Liberty Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Liberty Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Liberty Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Liberty Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.