Lennar Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LEN-B Stock | USD 143.51 1.85 1.31% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lennar on the next trading day is expected to be 143.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.28. Lennar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lennar stock prices and determine the direction of Lennar's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lennar's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Lennar's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lennar's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lennar fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections. Lennar |
Most investors in Lennar cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lennar's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lennar's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Lennar works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Lennar Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lennar on the next trading day is expected to be 143.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94, mean absolute percentage error of 8.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lennar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lennar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lennar Stock Forecast Pattern
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Lennar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lennar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lennar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 141.63 and 145.47, respectively. We have considered Lennar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lennar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lennar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4456 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9379 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0135 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 116.2767 |
Predictive Modules for Lennar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lennar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lennar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lennar
For every potential investor in Lennar, whether a beginner or expert, Lennar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lennar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lennar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lennar's price trends.Lennar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lennar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lennar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lennar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lennar Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lennar's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lennar's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lennar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lennar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lennar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lennar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lennar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lennar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lennar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lennar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lennar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Lennar in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Lennar's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Lennar options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lennar Stock refer to our How to Trade Lennar Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Lennar Stock analysis
When running Lennar's price analysis, check to measure Lennar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lennar is operating at the current time. Most of Lennar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lennar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lennar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lennar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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