Marathon Oil Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| MRO Stock | USD 26.59 0.60 2.21% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Marathon Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 26.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.35. Marathon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marathon Oil stock prices and determine the direction of Marathon Oil's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marathon Oil's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Marathon Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Marathon Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Marathon Oil fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Oil to cross-verify your projections. Marathon |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Marathon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Marathon Oil's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Marathon Oil's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Marathon Oil stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Marathon Oil's open interest, investors have to compare it to Marathon Oil's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Marathon Oil is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Marathon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Marathon Oil cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Marathon Oil's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Marathon Oil's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Marathon Oil is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Marathon Oil 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Marathon Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 26.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50, mean absolute percentage error of 0.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marathon Oil | Marathon Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Marathon Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marathon Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marathon Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.49 and 28.19, respectively. We have considered Marathon Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.7551 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1479 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4974 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.3525 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marathon Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Marathon Oil
For every potential investor in Marathon, whether a beginner or expert, Marathon Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marathon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marathon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marathon Oil's price trends.Marathon Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Oil Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marathon Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marathon Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marathon Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marathon Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Oil to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Marathon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marathon Oil guide.You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Marathon Stock analysis
When running Marathon Oil's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marathon Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marathon Oil. If investors know Marathon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marathon Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 0.43 | Earnings Share 2.42 | Revenue Per Share 10.79 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Marathon Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marathon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marathon Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marathon Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marathon Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marathon Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marathon Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marathon Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marathon Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.