National Western Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NWLI Stock | USD 490.01 1.30 0.26% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Western Life on the next trading day is expected to be 490.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.47. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Western's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Most investors in National Western cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the National Western's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets National Western's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
National Western simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for National Western Life are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as National Western Life prices get older. National Western Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Western Life on the next trading day is expected to be 490.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 1.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Western's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Western Stock Forecast Pattern
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National Western Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Western's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Western's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 489.80 and 490.22, respectively. We have considered National Western's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Western stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Western stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3586 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0668 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7245 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.47 |
Predictive Modules for National Western
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Western Life. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Western's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for National Western
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Western's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Western's price trends.National Western Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Western stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Western could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Western by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Western Life Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Western's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Western's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Western Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Western stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Western shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Western stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Western Life entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Western Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Western's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Western's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1463 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.179 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2112 | |||
| Variance | 0.0446 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0608 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.032 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock
When determining whether National Western Life offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of National Western's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of National Western Life Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on National Western Life Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Western to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Life & Health Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Western. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Western listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.982 | Dividend Share 0.36 | Earnings Share 44.05 | Revenue Per Share 205.804 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.295 |
The market value of National Western Life is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Western's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Western's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Western's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Western's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Western's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Western is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Western's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.