Origin Materials Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ORGN Stock | USD 1.21 0.06 5.22% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Origin Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 1.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.95. Origin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Origin Materials stock prices and determine the direction of Origin Materials's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Origin Materials' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Origin Materials' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Origin Materials' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Origin Materials fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Materials to cross-verify your projections. Origin |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Origin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Origin Materials' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Origin Materials' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Origin Materials stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Origin Materials' open interest, investors have to compare it to Origin Materials' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Origin Materials is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Origin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Origin Materials cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Origin Materials' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Origin Materials' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Origin Materials simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Origin Materials are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Origin Materials prices get older. Origin Materials Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Origin Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 1.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Origin Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Materials | Origin Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Origin Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Origin Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Origin Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 9.66, respectively. We have considered Origin Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.9435 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0112 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0492 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0615 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.95 |
Predictive Modules for Origin Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Origin Materials
For every potential investor in Origin, whether a beginner or expert, Origin Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Origin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Origin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Origin Materials' price trends.Origin Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Origin Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Origin Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Origin Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Origin Materials' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Origin Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Origin Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Origin Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Origin Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.21 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.21 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.06 |
Origin Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Origin Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Origin Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting origin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.59 | |||
| Variance | 73.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 56.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 39.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (9.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Materials to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Origin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Origin Materials guide.Note that the Origin Materials information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Origin Materials' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Origin Stock analysis
When running Origin Materials' price analysis, check to measure Origin Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Origin Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Materials. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | Revenue Per Share 0.241 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 3.005 | Return On Assets (0.08) | Return On Equity 0.0003 |
The market value of Origin Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.