Perpetua Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PPTA Stock | CAD 7.48 0.02 0.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Perpetua Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.07. Perpetua Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Perpetua Resources stock prices and determine the direction of Perpetua Resources Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Perpetua Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Perpetua Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Perpetua Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Perpetua Resources fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perpetua Resources to cross-verify your projections. Perpetua |
Most investors in Perpetua Resources cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Perpetua Resources' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Perpetua Resources' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Perpetua Resources is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Perpetua Resources Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Perpetua Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Perpetua Resources Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Perpetua Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Perpetua Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Perpetua Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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Perpetua Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Perpetua Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Perpetua Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.94 and 12.65, respectively. We have considered Perpetua Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Perpetua Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Perpetua Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6244 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4366 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0757 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.0684 |
Predictive Modules for Perpetua Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perpetua Resources Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Perpetua Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Perpetua Resources
For every potential investor in Perpetua, whether a beginner or expert, Perpetua Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Perpetua Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Perpetua. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Perpetua Resources' price trends.Perpetua Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Perpetua Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Perpetua Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Perpetua Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Perpetua Resources Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Perpetua Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Perpetua Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Perpetua Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Perpetua Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Perpetua Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Perpetua Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Perpetua Resources Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 761.58 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0571 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.48 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Perpetua Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Perpetua Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Perpetua Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting perpetua stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.21 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.31 | |||
| Variance | 28.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.94 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Perpetua Resources in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Perpetua Resources' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Perpetua Resources options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Perpetua Resources to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Complementary Tools for Perpetua Stock analysis
When running Perpetua Resources' price analysis, check to measure Perpetua Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Perpetua Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Perpetua Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Perpetua Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Perpetua Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Perpetua Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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