Regions Financial Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RF Stock | USD 19.74 0.09 0.46% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regions Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 19.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.32. Regions Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Regions Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Regions Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Regions Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Regions Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Regions Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Regions Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Regions Financial to cross-verify your projections. Regions |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Regions Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Regions Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Regions Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Regions Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Regions Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Regions Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Regions Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Regions. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Regions Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Regions Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Regions Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Regions Financial - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Regions Financial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Regions Financial price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Regions Financial. Regions Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regions Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 19.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Regions Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Regions Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Regions Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Regions Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Regions Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Regions Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.24 and 21.28, respectively. We have considered Regions Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Regions Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Regions Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0459 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2427 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.3184 |
Predictive Modules for Regions Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Regions Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Regions Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Regions Financial
For every potential investor in Regions, whether a beginner or expert, Regions Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Regions Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Regions. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Regions Financial's price trends.Regions Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Regions Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Regions Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Regions Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Regions Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Regions Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Regions Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Regions Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Regions Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Regions Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Regions Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Regions Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 |
Regions Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Regions Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Regions Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting regions stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Regions Financial Investors Sentiment
The influence of Regions Financial's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Regions. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Regions Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Regions. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Regions can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Regions Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Regions Financial's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Regions Financial's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Regions Financial's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Regions Financial.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Regions Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Regions Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Regions Financial options trading.
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When determining whether Regions Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Regions Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Regions Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Regions Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Regions Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Regions Stock please use our How to Invest in Regions Financial guide.Note that the Regions Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Regions Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for Regions Stock analysis
When running Regions Financial's price analysis, check to measure Regions Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Regions Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Regions Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Regions Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Regions Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Regions Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Regions Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Regions Financial. If investors know Regions will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Regions Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share 7.293 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.156 | Return On Assets 0.0118 |
The market value of Regions Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Regions that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Regions Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Regions Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Regions Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Regions Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Regions Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Regions Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Regions Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.