Rathdowney Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

RTH Stock  CAD 0.02  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rathdowney Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.10. Rathdowney Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Rathdowney Resources is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Rathdowney Resources value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Rathdowney Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rathdowney Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000497, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rathdowney Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rathdowney Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rathdowney Resources Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Rathdowney ResourcesRathdowney Resources Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Rathdowney Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rathdowney Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rathdowney Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0002 and 16.00, respectively. We have considered Rathdowney Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.02
0.0002
Downside
0.02
Expected Value
16.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rathdowney Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rathdowney Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria105.899
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0016
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.106
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0946
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Rathdowney Resources. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Rathdowney Resources. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Rathdowney Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rathdowney Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rathdowney Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.0216.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.0216.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Rathdowney Resources

For every potential investor in Rathdowney, whether a beginner or expert, Rathdowney Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rathdowney Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rathdowney. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rathdowney Resources' price trends.

Rathdowney Resources Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rathdowney Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rathdowney Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rathdowney Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rathdowney Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rathdowney Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rathdowney Resources' current price.

Rathdowney Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rathdowney Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rathdowney Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rathdowney Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rathdowney Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rathdowney Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rathdowney Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rathdowney Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rathdowney stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
Explore Investing Ideas  

Additional Tools for Rathdowney Stock Analysis

When running Rathdowney Resources' price analysis, check to measure Rathdowney Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rathdowney Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Rathdowney Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rathdowney Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rathdowney Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rathdowney Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.