Standard Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SMP Stock | USD 32.27 0.19 0.59% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Standard Motor Products on the next trading day is expected to be 32.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.40. Standard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Standard stock prices and determine the direction of Standard Motor Products's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Standard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Standard's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Standard's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Standard fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Standard to cross-verify your projections. Standard |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Standard Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Standard's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Standard's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Standard stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Standard's open interest, investors have to compare it to Standard's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Standard is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Standard. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Standard cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Standard's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Standard's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Standard - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Standard prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Standard price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Standard Motor Products. Standard Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Standard Motor Products on the next trading day is expected to be 32.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Standard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Standard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Standard Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Standard | Standard Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Standard Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Standard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Standard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.78 and 33.80, respectively. We have considered Standard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Standard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Standard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1592 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3602 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.4034 |
Predictive Modules for Standard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Standard Motor Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Standard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Standard
For every potential investor in Standard, whether a beginner or expert, Standard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Standard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Standard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Standard's price trends.Standard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Standard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Standard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Standard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Standard Motor Products Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Standard's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Standard's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Standard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Standard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Standard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Standard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Standard Motor Products entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Standard Risk Indicators
The analysis of Standard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Standard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting standard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9705 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Standard in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Standard's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Standard options trading.
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When determining whether Standard Motor Products is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Standard Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Standard Motor Products Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Standard Motor Products Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Standard to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Complementary Tools for Standard Stock analysis
When running Standard's price analysis, check to measure Standard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Standard is operating at the current time. Most of Standard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Standard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Standard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Standard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Standard's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Standard. If investors know Standard will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Standard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Dividend Share 1.16 | Earnings Share 2.85 | Revenue Per Share 62.547 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of Standard Motor Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Standard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Standard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Standard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Standard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Standard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Standard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Standard is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Standard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.