Encore Wire Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

WIRE Stock

USD 182.81 2.86 1.59%

Encore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Encore Wire historical stock prices and determine the direction of Encore Wire's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Encore Wire historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Encore Wire naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Encore Wire systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Encore Wire fundamentals over time.

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Encore Wire to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Encore Stock refer to our How to Trade Encore Stock guide.

Encore Wire Inventory Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Inventory Turnover was at 15.00. The current year Accounts Payable Turnover is expected to grow to 47.09, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 5.58. . As of March 30, 2023, Weighted Average Shares is expected to decline to about 18.8 M. In addition to that, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to decline to about 19 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Encore Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Encore Wire's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Encore Wire's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Encore Wire stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.

Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Encore Wire's open interest, investors have to compare it to Encore Wire's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Encore Wire is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Encore. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Most investors in Encore Wire cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Encore Wire's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Encore Wire's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.

A naive forecasting model for Encore Wire is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Encore Wire value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

More About Naive Prediction All Equity Analysis

Encore Wire Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Encore Wire on the next trading day is expected to be 191.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.80, mean absolute percentage error of 25.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 231.90.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Encore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Encore Wire's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Encore Wire Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Encore Wire

Encore Wire Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Encore Wire Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Encore Wire's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Encore Wire's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 188.55 and 194.02, respectively. We have considered Encore Wire's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.

Market Value 182.81

188.55

Downside

191.28

Expected Value

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

194.02

Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Encore Wire stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Encore Wire stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	121.367
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	3.8017
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.022
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	231.9037

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Encore Wire. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Encore Wire. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Encore Wire

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Encore Wire. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Encore Wire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Encore Wire in the context of predictive analytics.

Hype

Prediction

Low	Estimated Value	High
179.93	182.68	185.43

Details

Intrinsic

Valuation

Low	Real Value	High
164.96	228.10	230.85

Details

1 Analysts

Consensus

Low	Target Price	High
250.00	250.00	250.00

Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Encore Wire. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Encore Wire's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Encore Wire's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Encore Wire.

Other Forecasting Options for Encore Wire

For every potential investor in Encore, whether a beginner or expert, Encore Wire's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Encore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Encore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Encore Wire's price trends.

Encore Wire Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Encore Wire stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Encore Wire could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Encore Wire by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Bloom Energy CorpBabcock Wilcox EnterKimball ElectronicsM-tron IndustriesMicrovast HoldingsNeoVolta CommonElectra Battery MaterialsEnovix CorpEos Energy EnterprisesAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOne

Risk & Return

Correlation

Encore Wire Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Encore Wire's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Encore Wire's current price.

	Cycle Indicators
	Math Operators
	Math Transform
	Momentum Indicators
	Overlap Studies
	Pattern Recognition
	Price Transform
	Statistic Functions
	Volatility Indicators
	Volume Indicators

Encore Wire Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Encore Wire stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Encore Wire shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Encore Wire stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Encore Wire entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

	Accumulation Distribution	7236.82
	Daily Balance Of Power	0.6667
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.02
	Day Median Price	182.5
	Day Typical Price	182.6
	Market Facilitation Index	0.0
	Price Action Indicator	1.75

Encore Wire Risk Indicators

The analysis of Encore Wire's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Encore Wire's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Encore Wire stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	1.74
	Semi Deviation	2.0
	Standard Deviation	2.67
	Variance	7.15
	Downside Variance	5.9
	Semi Variance	4.01
	Expected Short fall	(1.81)

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Encore Wire Investors Sentiment

The influence of Encore Wire's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Encore. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Investor biases related to Encore Wire's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Encore. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Encore can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Encore Wire. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Encore Wire's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Encore Wire's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Encore Wire's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Encore Wire.

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Encore Wire in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Encore Wire's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Encore Wire options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

S	SentinelOne
F	Ford Motor
MSFT	Microsoft

Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Encore Wire to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Encore Stock refer to our How to Trade Encore Stock guide. You can also try ETF Directory module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Encore Wire price analysis, check to measure Encore Wire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Encore Wire is operating at the current time. Most of Encore Wire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Encore Wire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Encore Wire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Encore Wire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is Encore Wire's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Encore Wire. If investors know Encore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Encore Wire listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

0.198

Dividend Share

0.08

Earnings Share

36.9

Revenue Per Share

157.501

Quarterly Revenue Growth

0.009

The market value of Encore Wire is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Encore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Encore Wire's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Encore Wire's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Encore Wire's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Encore Wire's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Encore Wire's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Encore Wire value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Encore Wire's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

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	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average

Encore Wire Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Open Interest Agains t 2023-04-21 Encore Option Contracts

Encore Wire Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of March

Encore Wire Stock Forecast Pattern

Encore Wire Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

Predictive Modules for Encore Wire

Other Forecasting Options for Encore Wire

Encore Wire Related Equities

Encore Wire Technical and Predictive Analytics

Encore Wire Market Strength Events

Encore Wire Risk Indicators

Encore Wire Investors Sentiment

Also Currently Popular

Complementary Tools for analysis

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