Encore Wire Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

WIRE Stock  USD 278.69  1.75  0.63%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Encore Wire on the next trading day is expected to be 275.24 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.39  and the sum of the absolute errors of 207.09. Encore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Encore Wire stock prices and determine the direction of Encore Wire's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Encore Wire's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Encore Wire's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Encore Wire's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Encore Wire fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Encore Wire to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Encore Stock refer to our How to Trade Encore Stock guide.
  
At present, Encore Wire's Receivables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 5.97, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 8.19. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 19.3 M. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 866.8 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Encore Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Encore Wire's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Encore Wire's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Encore Wire stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Encore Wire's open interest, investors have to compare it to Encore Wire's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Encore Wire is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Encore. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Encore Wire cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Encore Wire's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Encore Wire's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Encore Wire is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Encore Wire value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Encore Wire Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Encore Wire on the next trading day is expected to be 275.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.39, mean absolute percentage error of 27.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 207.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Encore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Encore Wire's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Encore Wire Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Encore WireEncore Wire Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Encore Wire Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Encore Wire's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Encore Wire's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 273.08 and 277.40, respectively. We have considered Encore Wire's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
278.69
273.08
Downside
275.24
Expected Value
277.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Encore Wire stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Encore Wire stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.4382
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.395
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors207.0934
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Encore Wire. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Encore Wire. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Encore Wire

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Encore Wire. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Encore Wire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
276.31278.47280.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
274.53276.69278.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
275.85279.31282.77
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
217.19238.67264.92
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Encore Wire. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Encore Wire's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Encore Wire's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Encore Wire.

Other Forecasting Options for Encore Wire

For every potential investor in Encore, whether a beginner or expert, Encore Wire's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Encore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Encore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Encore Wire's price trends.

Encore Wire Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Encore Wire stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Encore Wire could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Encore Wire by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Encore Wire Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Encore Wire's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Encore Wire's current price.

Encore Wire Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Encore Wire stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Encore Wire shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Encore Wire stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Encore Wire entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Encore Wire Risk Indicators

The analysis of Encore Wire's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Encore Wire's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting encore stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Encore Wire is a strong investment it is important to analyze Encore Wire's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Encore Wire's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Encore Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Encore Wire to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Encore Stock refer to our How to Trade Encore Stock guide.
You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.

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Is Encore Wire's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Encore Wire. If investors know Encore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Encore Wire listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
Dividend Share
0.08
Earnings Share
19.05
Revenue Per Share
155.987
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of Encore Wire is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Encore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Encore Wire's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Encore Wire's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Encore Wire's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Encore Wire's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Encore Wire's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Encore Wire is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Encore Wire's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.