Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.05
| AUPH Stock | USD 5.02 0.15 2.90% |
Closest to current price Aurinia long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Aurinia |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 0.05
The tendency of Aurinia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days |
| 5.02 | 90 days | 0.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aurinia Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Aurinia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals price to stay between $ 0.05 and its current price of $5.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.42 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has a beta of 0.16. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aurinia Pharmaceuticals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.6 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 175.51 M. Net Loss for the year was (78.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 83.38 M. | |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 391.51 M in cash with (33.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.76. | |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Aurinia Presents Data Reinforcing LUPKYNIS Safety and Efficacy for People with Lupus Nephritis at Congress of Clinical Rheumatology East 2024 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurinia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 350.5 M |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurinia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurinia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 175.51 M. Net Loss for the year was (78.02 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 83.38 M. | |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 391.51 M in cash with (33.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.76. | |
| Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Aurinia Presents Data Reinforcing LUPKYNIS Safety and Efficacy for People with Lupus Nephritis at Congress of Clinical Rheumatology East 2024 |
Check out Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals History as well as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Aurinia Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Aurinia Stock analysis
When running Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Aurinia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.43) | Revenue Per Share 1.333 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.462 | Return On Assets (0.08) | Return On Equity (0.17) |
The market value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurinia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.