Newcrest Mining Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 12.79
| NCMGFDelisted Stock | USD 15.20 0.30 1.94% |
Newcrest |
Newcrest Mining Target Price Odds to finish below 12.79
The tendency of Newcrest Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.79 or more in 90 days |
| 15.20 | 90 days | 12.79 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Newcrest Mining to drop to $ 12.79 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Newcrest Mining probability density function shows the probability of Newcrest Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Newcrest Mining price to stay between $ 12.79 and its current price of $15.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.47 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Newcrest Mining has a beta of -0.16. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Newcrest Mining are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Newcrest Mining is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Newcrest Mining has an alpha of 0.1366, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Newcrest Mining Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Newcrest Mining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Newcrest Mining. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Newcrest Mining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Newcrest Mining Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Newcrest Mining is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Newcrest Mining's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Newcrest Mining, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Newcrest Mining within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Newcrest Mining Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Newcrest Mining for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Newcrest Mining can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Newcrest Mining is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Newcrest Mining has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| About 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Newcrest Mining Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Newcrest Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Newcrest Mining's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Newcrest Mining's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 890.5 M |
Newcrest Mining Technical Analysis
Newcrest Mining's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Newcrest Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Newcrest Mining. In general, you should focus on analyzing Newcrest Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Newcrest Mining Predictive Forecast Models
Newcrest Mining's time-series forecasting models is one of many Newcrest Mining's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Newcrest Mining's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Newcrest Mining
Checking the ongoing alerts about Newcrest Mining for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Newcrest Mining help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Newcrest Mining is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Newcrest Mining has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| About 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price. Note that the Newcrest Mining information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Newcrest Mining's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Other Consideration for investing in Newcrest Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in Newcrest Mining check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Newcrest Mining's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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