Vivopower International Plc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.20
| VVPR Stock | USD 3.46 0.47 11.96% |
Closest to current price VivoPower long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
VivoPower |
VivoPower International Target Price Odds to finish below 0.20
The tendency of VivoPower Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.20 or more in 90 days |
| 3.46 | 90 days | 0.20 | about 6.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VivoPower International to drop to $ 0.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.97 (This VivoPower International PLC probability density function shows the probability of VivoPower Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VivoPower International price to stay between $ 0.20 and its current price of $3.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.16 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days VivoPower International PLC has a beta of -7.24. This entails as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding VivoPower International PLC are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, VivoPower International is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that VivoPower International PLC has an alpha of 4.7048, implying that it can generate a 4.7 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). VivoPower International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for VivoPower International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VivoPower International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VivoPower International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VivoPower International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VivoPower International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VivoPower International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VivoPower International PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VivoPower International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 4.70 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -7.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
VivoPower International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of VivoPower International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for VivoPower International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| VivoPower International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| VivoPower International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| VivoPower International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company currently holds 32.4 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.3, which is about average as compared to similar companies. VivoPower International has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist VivoPower International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, VivoPower International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like VivoPower International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for VivoPower to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about VivoPower International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 15.1 M. Net Loss for the year was (24.36 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.59 M. | |
| VivoPower International PLC currently holds about 1.28 M in cash with (8.55 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. | |
| VivoPower International has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 43.0% of VivoPower International outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: VivoPower International to sell Kenshaw Electrical |
VivoPower International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of VivoPower Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential VivoPower International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VivoPower International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 600 K |
VivoPower International Technical Analysis
VivoPower International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VivoPower Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VivoPower International PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing VivoPower Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VivoPower International Predictive Forecast Models
VivoPower International's time-series forecasting models is one of many VivoPower International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VivoPower International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about VivoPower International
Checking the ongoing alerts about VivoPower International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for VivoPower International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| VivoPower International is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| VivoPower International appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| VivoPower International has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company currently holds 32.4 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.3, which is about average as compared to similar companies. VivoPower International has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist VivoPower International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, VivoPower International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like VivoPower International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for VivoPower to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about VivoPower International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 15.1 M. Net Loss for the year was (24.36 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.59 M. | |
| VivoPower International PLC currently holds about 1.28 M in cash with (8.55 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.06. | |
| VivoPower International has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 43.0% of VivoPower International outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: VivoPower International to sell Kenshaw Electrical |
Check out VivoPower International Backtesting, VivoPower International Valuation, VivoPower International Correlation, VivoPower International Hype Analysis, VivoPower International Volatility, VivoPower International History as well as VivoPower International Performance. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for VivoPower Stock analysis
When running VivoPower International's price analysis, check to measure VivoPower International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VivoPower International is operating at the current time. Most of VivoPower International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VivoPower International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VivoPower International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VivoPower International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is VivoPower International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of VivoPower International. If investors know VivoPower will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about VivoPower International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (6.72) | Revenue Per Share 4.831 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.32) | Return On Assets (0.07) | Return On Equity (2.98) |
The market value of VivoPower International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VivoPower that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VivoPower International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VivoPower International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VivoPower International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VivoPower International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VivoPower International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VivoPower International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VivoPower International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.