Xpel Inc Stock Price Prediction
| XPEL Stock | USD 39.14 0.40 1.01% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
37
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.58 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.68 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2 | Wall Street Target Price 38.5 |
Using Xpel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xpel Inc from the perspective of Xpel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Xpel using Xpel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Xpel using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Xpel's stock price.
Xpel Short Interest
An investor who is long Xpel may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Xpel and may potentially protect profits, hedge Xpel with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 54.4314 | Short Percent 0.1084 | Short Ratio 5.46 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 45.0046 |
Xpel Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Xpel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Xpel. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Xpel can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Xpel Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Xpel's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Xpel.
Xpel Implied Volatility | 113.0 |
Xpel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Xpel Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Xpel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Xpel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Xpel's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Xpel to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Xpel because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Xpel after-hype prediction price | USD 39.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Xpel contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Xpel Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 7.06% per day over the life of the 2024-06-21 option contract. With Xpel trading at USD 39.14, that is roughly USD 2.76 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Xpel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Xpel Inc options at the current volatility level of 113.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Xpel |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xpel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Xpel After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xpel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xpel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xpel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xpel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xpel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xpel's historical news coverage. Xpel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.60 and 44.68, respectively. We have considered Xpel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xpel is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xpel Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xpel Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xpel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xpel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xpel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 5.54 | 0.55 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
39.14 | 39.14 | 0.00 |
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Xpel Hype Timeline
Xpel Inc is at this time traded for 39.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.55, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Xpel is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Xpel is about 4155.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.11. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Xpel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Xpel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xpel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xpel's future price movements. Getting to know how Xpel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xpel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DORM | Dorman Products | (1.11) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.92 | (1.93) | 8.68 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | (0.59) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.34 | (2.44) | 8.39 | |
| MPAA | Motorcar Parts of | 0.17 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 4.42 | (5.72) | 14.84 | |
| SRI | Stoneridge | 0.07 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.72 | (4.10) | 12.17 | |
| GNTX | Gentex | 0.27 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.23 | (1.61) | 3.80 | |
| MNRO | Monro Muffler Brake | (0.77) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.02 | (4.22) | 17.02 | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | (0.34) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.40 | (3.70) | 9.25 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | (1.91) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.80 | (2.38) | 10.53 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | 3.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.75 | (4.93) | 16.35 |
Xpel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xpel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xpel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xpel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Xpel Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Xpel stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Xpel Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Xpel based on analysis of Xpel hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Xpel's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Xpel's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 5.06 | 8.55 | 9.65 | 5.15 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 113.8 | 149.68 | 166.22 | 174.53 |
Story Coverage note for Xpel
The number of cover stories for Xpel depends on current market conditions and Xpel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xpel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xpel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Xpel Short Properties
Xpel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Xpel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xpel Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xpel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xpel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.6 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Xpel Stock
When determining whether Xpel Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Xpel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Xpel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Xpel Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Xpel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xpel. If investors know Xpel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xpel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Earnings Share 1.74 | Revenue Per Share 14.499 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Assets 0.1643 |
The market value of Xpel Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xpel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xpel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xpel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xpel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xpel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xpel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xpel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xpel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.