OBI Pharma (Taiwan) Market Value
| 4174 Stock | TWD 59.00 0.80 1.34% |
| Symbol | OBI |
OBI Pharma 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to OBI Pharma's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of OBI Pharma.
| 02/26/2024 |
| 05/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in OBI Pharma on February 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding OBI Pharma or generate 0.0% return on investment in OBI Pharma over 90 days. OBI Pharma is related to or competes with Ruentex Development, Symtek Automation, Information Technology, Giant Manufacturing, Chong Hong, Farglory Land, and E Lead. OBI Pharma, Inc., a bio-pharma company, develops and licenses novel therapeutic agents for unmet medical needs against c... More
OBI Pharma Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure OBI Pharma's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess OBI Pharma upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.81 |
OBI Pharma Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for OBI Pharma's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as OBI Pharma's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use OBI Pharma historical prices to predict the future OBI Pharma's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.32) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (7.20) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of OBI Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
OBI Pharma Backtested Returns
OBI Pharma maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.16, which implies the company had a -0.16% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. OBI Pharma exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check OBI Pharma's variance of 1.87, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (7.19) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The firm holds a Beta of 0.0324, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, OBI Pharma's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding OBI Pharma is expected to be smaller as well. OBI Pharma has an expected return of -0.22%. Please make sure to check OBI Pharma standard deviation, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if OBI Pharma performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | 0.01 |
Virtually no predictability
OBI Pharma has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between OBI Pharma time series from 26th of February 2024 to 11th of April 2024 and 11th of April 2024 to 26th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of OBI Pharma price movement. The serial correlation of 0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current OBI Pharma price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.32 |
OBI Pharma lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is OBI Pharma stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting OBI Pharma's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of OBI Pharma returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that OBI Pharma has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
OBI Pharma regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If OBI Pharma stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if OBI Pharma stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in OBI Pharma stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
OBI Pharma Lagged Returns
When evaluating OBI Pharma's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of OBI Pharma stock have on its future price. OBI Pharma autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, OBI Pharma autocorrelation shows the relationship between OBI Pharma stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in OBI Pharma.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Complementary Tools for OBI Stock analysis
When running OBI Pharma's price analysis, check to measure OBI Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OBI Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of OBI Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OBI Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OBI Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OBI Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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OBI Pharma technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.