Carlsberg (Germany) Market Value
| CBGB Stock | EUR 126.20 2.05 1.60% |
| Symbol | Carlsberg |
Carlsberg 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Carlsberg's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Carlsberg.
| 02/27/2024 |
| 05/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Carlsberg on February 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carlsberg AS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carlsberg over 90 days. Carlsberg is related to or competes with SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, Norsk Hydro, SYNNEX, Meli Hotels, HeidelbergCement, IMPERIAL TOBACCO, and Hemisphere Energy. Carlsberg AS produces and sells beer and other beverage products in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia More
Carlsberg Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Carlsberg's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Carlsberg AS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1115 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.99) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.95 |
Carlsberg Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Carlsberg's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Carlsberg's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Carlsberg historical prices to predict the future Carlsberg's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.082 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4035 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1831 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2913 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.94) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carlsberg's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carlsberg AS Backtested Returns
Carlsberg appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Carlsberg AS secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which signifies that the company had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Carlsberg AS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Carlsberg's Mean Deviation of 1.29, downside deviation of 1.2, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.082 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Carlsberg holds a performance score of 10. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.41, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Carlsberg are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Carlsberg is likely to outperform the market. Please check Carlsberg's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Carlsberg's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.71 |
Good predictability
Carlsberg AS has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carlsberg time series from 27th of February 2024 to 12th of April 2024 and 12th of April 2024 to 27th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carlsberg AS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Carlsberg price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.6 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 13.33 |
Carlsberg AS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Carlsberg stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Carlsberg's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Carlsberg returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Carlsberg has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Carlsberg regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Carlsberg stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Carlsberg stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Carlsberg stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Carlsberg Lagged Returns
When evaluating Carlsberg's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Carlsberg stock have on its future price. Carlsberg autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Carlsberg autocorrelation shows the relationship between Carlsberg stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Carlsberg AS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out Carlsberg Correlation, Carlsberg Volatility and Carlsberg Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Carlsberg. Note that the Carlsberg AS information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carlsberg's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Carlsberg Stock analysis
When running Carlsberg's price analysis, check to measure Carlsberg's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carlsberg is operating at the current time. Most of Carlsberg's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carlsberg's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carlsberg's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carlsberg to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Carlsberg technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.