Outbrain Stock Price Prediction

OB Stock  USD 4.18  0.04  0.95%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (rsi) of Outbrain's share price is at 53. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Outbrain's stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

53

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Outbrain stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Outbrain shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Outbrain's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Outbrain and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Outbrain's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Outbrain, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Outbrain's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.508
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.11
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.08)
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.06
Wall Street Target Price
5.45
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Outbrain based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Outbrain stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Outbrain over a specific investment horizon. Using Outbrain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Outbrain from the perspective of Outbrain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Outbrain using Outbrain's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Outbrain using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Outbrain's stock price.

Outbrain Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
Outbrain's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Outbrain stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Outbrain's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Outbrain stock will not fluctuate a lot when Outbrain's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Outbrain. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Outbrain to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Outbrain because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Outbrain after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Outbrain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Outbrain Stock refer to our How to Trade Outbrain Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Outbrain's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Outbrain in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.523.516.50
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1.124.127.11
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
5.926.507.22
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.020.08-0.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Outbrain. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Outbrain's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Outbrain's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Outbrain.

Outbrain After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Outbrain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Outbrain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Outbrain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Outbrain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Outbrain's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Outbrain's historical news coverage. Outbrain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.19 and 7.17, respectively. We have considered Outbrain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.18
4.18
After-hype Price
7.17
Upside
Outbrain is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Outbrain is based on 3 months time horizon.

Outbrain Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Outbrain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Outbrain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Outbrain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
2.99
  0.02 
  0.01 
3 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.18
4.18
0.00 
2,300  
Notes

Outbrain Hype Timeline

As of February 22, 2024 Outbrain is listed for 4.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Outbrain forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Outbrain is about 6900.0%. The volatility of related hype on Outbrain is about 6900.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 4.19. About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.99. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Outbrain recorded a loss per share of 0.29. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of September 2017. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Outbrain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Outbrain Stock refer to our How to Trade Outbrain Stock guide.

Outbrain Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Outbrain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Outbrain's future price movements. Getting to know how Outbrain rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Outbrain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Outbrain Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Outbrain price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Outbrain using various technical indicators. When you analyze Outbrain charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Outbrain Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Outbrain stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Outbrain, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Outbrain based on analysis of Outbrain hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Outbrain's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Outbrain's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Outbrain

The number of cover stories for Outbrain depends on current market conditions and Outbrain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Outbrain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Outbrain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Outbrain Short Properties

Outbrain's future price predictability will typically decrease when Outbrain's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Outbrain often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Outbrain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Outbrain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding55.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments272.5 M
When determining whether Outbrain offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Outbrain's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Outbrain Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Outbrain Stock:
Check out Outbrain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Outbrain Stock refer to our How to Trade Outbrain Stock guide.
Note that the Outbrain information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Outbrain's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Outbrain Stock analysis

When running Outbrain's price analysis, check to measure Outbrain's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Outbrain is operating at the current time. Most of Outbrain's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Outbrain's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Outbrain's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Outbrain to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Outbrain's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Outbrain. If investors know Outbrain will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Outbrain listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.508
Earnings Share
(0.29)
Revenue Per Share
18.364
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.004
Return On Assets
(0.02)
The market value of Outbrain is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Outbrain that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Outbrain's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Outbrain's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Outbrain's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Outbrain's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Outbrain's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Outbrain is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Outbrain's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.