Outbrain Stock Price Prediction
| OB Stock | USD 5.10 0.05 0.99% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.508 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.02 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.01 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.25 | Wall Street Target Price 6 |
Using Outbrain hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Outbrain from the perspective of Outbrain response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Outbrain using Outbrain's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Outbrain using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Outbrain's stock price.
Outbrain Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Outbrain's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Outbrain stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Outbrain's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Outbrain stock will not fluctuate a lot when Outbrain's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Outbrain to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Outbrain because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Outbrain after-hype prediction price | USD 5.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Outbrain |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Outbrain's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Outbrain After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Outbrain at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Outbrain or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Outbrain, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Outbrain Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Outbrain's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Outbrain's historical news coverage. Outbrain's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.80 and 7.30, respectively. We have considered Outbrain's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Outbrain is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Outbrain is based on 3 months time horizon.
Outbrain Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Outbrain is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Outbrain backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Outbrain, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.23 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 14 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.10 | 5.05 | 0.98 |
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Outbrain Hype Timeline
As of August 31, 2024 Outbrain is listed for 5.10. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Outbrain is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.05. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.98%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Outbrain is about 1368.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.07. About 31.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.16. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Outbrain recorded a loss per share of 0.32. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of September 2017. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Outbrain Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Outbrain Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Outbrain's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Outbrain's future price movements. Getting to know how Outbrain's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Outbrain may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Outbrain Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Outbrain price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Outbrain using various technical indicators. When you analyze Outbrain charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Outbrain Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Outbrain stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Outbrain, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Outbrain based on analysis of Outbrain hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Outbrain's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Outbrain's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Graham Number | 4.44 | 6.24 | 4.45 | 4.23 | Receivables Turnover | 5.27 | 5.47 | 4.94 | 4.7 |
Story Coverage note for Outbrain
The number of cover stories for Outbrain depends on current market conditions and Outbrain's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Outbrain is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Outbrain's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Outbrain Short Properties
Outbrain's future price predictability will typically decrease when Outbrain's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Outbrain often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Outbrain's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Outbrain's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 165.2 M |
Complementary Tools for Outbrain Stock analysis
When running Outbrain's price analysis, check to measure Outbrain's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Outbrain is operating at the current time. Most of Outbrain's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Outbrain's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Outbrain's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Outbrain to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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