Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AUPH Stock | USD 4.91 0.04 0.82% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 5.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.17. Aurinia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Aurinia |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Aurinia Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Aurinia. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 5.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurinia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aurinia Pharmaceuticals | Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.18 and 9.15, respectively. We have considered Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9299 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2159 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0353 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.1718 |
Predictive Modules for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Aurinia, whether a beginner or expert, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurinia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurinia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price trends.View Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurinia Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurinia Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurinia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.91 | |||
| Variance | 15.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Investors Sentiment
The influence of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aurinia. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aurinia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aurinia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aurinia Pharmaceuticals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aurinia Pharmaceuticals options trading.
Pair Trading with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Aurinia Stock
| 0.84 | HCWB | HCW Biologics | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | KRYS | Krystal Biotech Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | ELEV | Elevation Oncology Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | IOVA | Iovance Biotherapeutics Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | A | Agilent Technologies Financial Report 28th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aurinia Pharmaceuticals when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aurinia Pharmaceuticals - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to buy it.
The correlation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Aurinia Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Complementary Tools for Aurinia Stock analysis
When running Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account |
Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Aurinia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.54) | Revenue Per Share 1.225 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.586 | Return On Assets (0.11) | Return On Equity (0.20) |
The market value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurinia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.