Elanco Animal Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ELAN Stock | USD 13.26 0.22 1.69% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Elanco Animal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 13.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.38. Elanco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Elanco Animal stock prices and determine the direction of Elanco Animal Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Elanco Animal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Elanco Animal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Elanco Animal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Elanco Animal fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elanco Animal to cross-verify your projections. Elanco |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Elanco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Elanco Animal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Elanco Animal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Elanco Animal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Elanco Animal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Elanco Animal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Elanco Animal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Elanco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Elanco Animal cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Elanco Animal's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Elanco Animal's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Elanco Animal is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Elanco Animal Health value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Elanco Animal Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Elanco Animal Health on the next trading day is expected to be 13.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elanco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elanco Animal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Elanco Animal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Elanco Animal | Elanco Animal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Elanco Animal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Elanco Animal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elanco Animal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.67 and 15.61, respectively. We have considered Elanco Animal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elanco Animal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elanco Animal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3312 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.203 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.3823 |
Predictive Modules for Elanco Animal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elanco Animal Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elanco Animal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Elanco Animal
For every potential investor in Elanco, whether a beginner or expert, Elanco Animal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elanco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elanco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elanco Animal's price trends.Elanco Animal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elanco Animal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elanco Animal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elanco Animal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Elanco Animal Health Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Elanco Animal's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Elanco Animal's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Elanco Animal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elanco Animal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elanco Animal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elanco Animal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elanco Animal Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Elanco Animal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Elanco Animal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elanco Animal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elanco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Elanco Animal
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Elanco Animal position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Elanco Animal will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Elanco Stock
| 0.54 | CGC | Canopy Growth Corp Financial Report 27th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | MMM | 3M Company Financial Report 23rd of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | GE | GE Aerospace Financial Report 23rd of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | CVX | Chevron Corp Financial Report 26th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Elanco Animal could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Elanco Animal when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Elanco Animal - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Elanco Animal Health to buy it.
The correlation of Elanco Animal is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Elanco Animal moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Elanco Animal Health moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Elanco Animal can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Elanco Animal to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Elanco Animal Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Elanco Animal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Elanco Stock analysis
When running Elanco Animal's price analysis, check to measure Elanco Animal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Elanco Animal is operating at the current time. Most of Elanco Animal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Elanco Animal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Elanco Animal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Elanco Animal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Theme Ratings Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device |
Is Elanco Animal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Elanco Animal. If investors know Elanco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Elanco Animal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.097 | Earnings Share (2.50) | Revenue Per Share 8.972 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 | Return On Assets 0.0139 |
The market value of Elanco Animal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Elanco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Elanco Animal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Elanco Animal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Elanco Animal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Elanco Animal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Elanco Animal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Elanco Animal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Elanco Animal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.