Alphabet Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GOOGL Stock  USD 179.22  0.41  0.23%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alphabet Inc Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 182.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 109.36. Alphabet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Alphabet's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alphabet's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alphabet fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Alphabet's Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 22.80 this year, although the value of Fixed Asset Turnover will most likely fall to 1.97. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 13.5 B this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 72.4 B this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-06-28 Alphabet Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alphabet's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alphabet's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alphabet stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alphabet's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alphabet's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alphabet is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alphabet. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alphabet cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alphabet's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alphabet's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Alphabet is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alphabet Inc Class A value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alphabet Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alphabet Inc Class A on the next trading day is expected to be 182.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79, mean absolute percentage error of 5.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 109.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alphabet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alphabet's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alphabet Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alphabet Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alphabet's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alphabet's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 180.84 and 184.37, respectively. We have considered Alphabet's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
179.22
180.84
Downside
182.61
Expected Value
184.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alphabet stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alphabet stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.8223
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7928
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0108
SAESum of the absolute errors109.362
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alphabet Inc Class A. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alphabet. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alphabet

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alphabet Class A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alphabet's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
177.99179.75181.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
176.33178.09179.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
167.48174.19180.90
Details
59 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
139.06152.81169.62
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alphabet. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alphabet's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alphabet's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alphabet Class A.

Other Forecasting Options for Alphabet

For every potential investor in Alphabet, whether a beginner or expert, Alphabet's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alphabet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alphabet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alphabet's price trends.

Alphabet Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alphabet stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alphabet could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alphabet by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alphabet Class A Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alphabet's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alphabet's current price.

Alphabet Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alphabet stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alphabet shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alphabet stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alphabet Inc Class A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alphabet Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alphabet's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alphabet's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alphabet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alphabet Stock

When determining whether Alphabet Class A is a strong investment it is important to analyze Alphabet's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Alphabet's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Alphabet Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alphabet to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Interactive Media & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alphabet. If investors know Alphabet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alphabet listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.609
Earnings Share
6.52
Revenue Per Share
25.374
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.154
Return On Assets
0.1561
The market value of Alphabet Class A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alphabet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alphabet's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alphabet's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alphabet's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alphabet's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alphabet's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alphabet is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alphabet's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.