Ilex Medical Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ILX Stock   6,700  170.00  2.47%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Ilex Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 6,961 with a mean absolute deviation of  121.12  and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,388. Ilex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ilex Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Ilex Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ilex Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ilex Medical to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Ilex Medical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ilex Medical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ilex Medical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Ilex Medical polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Ilex Medical as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Ilex Medical Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Ilex Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 6,961 with a mean absolute deviation of 121.12, mean absolute percentage error of 23,297, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,388.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ilex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ilex Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ilex Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Ilex MedicalIlex Medical Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ilex Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ilex Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ilex Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,960 and 6,963, respectively. We have considered Ilex Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6,700
6,961
Expected Value
6,963
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ilex Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ilex Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.1666
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation121.1193
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors7388.2764
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Ilex Medical historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Ilex Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ilex Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ilex Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6,6996,7006,701
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6,4826,4847,370
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ilex Medical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ilex Medical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ilex Medical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ilex Medical.

Other Forecasting Options for Ilex Medical

For every potential investor in Ilex, whether a beginner or expert, Ilex Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ilex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ilex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ilex Medical's price trends.

Ilex Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ilex Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ilex Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ilex Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ilex Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ilex Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ilex Medical's current price.

Ilex Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ilex Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ilex Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ilex Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ilex Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ilex Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ilex Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ilex Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ilex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ilex Medical to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Ilex Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ilex Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ilex Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.