First Media Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for First Media - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When First Media prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in First Media price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of First Media Tbk.

First Media Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of First Media Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 31.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.34, mean absolute percentage error of 3.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.38.

First Media Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest First Media

First Media Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

First Media Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past First Media observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older First Media Tbk observations.

Predictive Modules for First Media

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Media Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 27.03 31.00 34.97 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 25.79 29.76 33.73 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 17.14 40.39 63.64 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Media. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Media's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Media's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Media Tbk.

Other Forecasting Options for First Media

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Media's price trends.

First Media Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Media Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Media's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Media's current price.

First Media Market Strength Events

First Media Risk Indicators

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as First Media Tbk using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis

Altman Z Score Details

Intrinsic Valuation Details

Financial Analysis Details

Buy or Sell Advice Details

Technical Analysis Details

Please note, there is a significant difference between First Media's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Media is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Media's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.